Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research.
Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research.
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0052
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发表时间：
2013-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Olshansky SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldman DP;Cutler D;Rowe JW;Michaud PC;Sullivan J;Peneva D;Olshansky SJ
最近的科学进展表明，减缓衰老过程（衰老）现在是一个现实的目标。然而，大多数医学研究仍然集中在对抗个别疾病。使用未来老年人模型，一个微观模拟未来的健康和支出的美国老年人在美国，我们比较乐观的“疾病特异性”的情况下，一个假设的“延迟老化”的情况下，他们对寿命的影响，残疾，和主要的权利计划的成本。延迟衰老可以使预期寿命增加2.2年，其中大部分时间将在健康状态下度过。延迟老化的经济价值估计为7.1万亿美元超过50年。相比之下，到2060年，单独解决心脏病和癌症将使健康和寿命的改善减少-主要是由于相互竞争的风险。延迟老龄化将大幅增加福利支出，特别是社会保障支出，但这些变化可以通过提高医疗保险资格年龄和社会保障正常退休年龄来抵消。总的来说，加大对延缓衰老研究的投资似乎是预防疾病、延长健康寿命和改善公共卫生的高效途径。
Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans in the United States—we compared optimistic “disease specific” scenarios with a hypothetical “delayed aging” scenario in terms of their impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would substantially increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security, but these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.
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影响因子：
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