Smart testing and selective quarantine for the control of epidemics.
Smart testing and selective quarantine for the control of epidemics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.03.001
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
9.4
通讯作者：
Garone E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pezzutto M;Bono Rosselló N;Schenato L;Garone E
本文基于以下观察：在新冠疫情期间，选择哪些人应接受检测对选择性隔离措施的有效性有重要影响。该决策问题与传感器最优选择问题密切相关，而传感器最优选择问题是控制工程中一个非常活跃的研究课题。本文的目标是提出一种策略，智能地选择要测试的个人。其主要思想是将流行病建模为随机动态系统，并根据某些最优标准选择要测试的个体，例如，最小化未检测到无症状病例的概率。每天，利用该现象的随机模型和前几天收集的信息更新不同个体的感染概率。对10'000人的封闭社区的模拟表明，与简单的阳性接触者追踪和基于接触者数量的离线测试选择策略相比，所提出的技术加上选择性隔离政策可以减少疾病的传播，同时限制隔离的个人数量。
This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related to the problem of optimal sensor selection, which is a very active research subject in control engineering. The goal of this paper is to propose a policy to smartly select the individuals to be tested. The main idea is to model the epidemics as a stochastic dynamic system and to select the individual to be tested accordingly to some optimality criteria, e.g. to minimize the probability of undetected asymptomatic cases. Every day, the probability of infection of the different individuals is updated making use of the stochastic model of the phenomenon and of the information collected in the previous days. Simulations for a closed community of 10’000 individuals show that the proposed technique, coupled with a selective confinement policy, can reduce the spread of the disease while limiting the number of individuals confined if compared to the simple contact tracing of positive and to an off-line test selection strategy based on the number of contacts.
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