Estimating road traffic impacts of commute mode shifts.
Estimating road traffic impacts of commute mode shifts.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0279738
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Work, Daniel B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Yue;Barbour, William;Qian, Kun;Claudel, Christian;Samaranayake, Samitha;Work, Daniel B.
这项工作考虑了由于通勤模式的潜在变化（例如由流行病等事件引起的）而导致的美国都市区通勤出行时间的敏感性。永久放弃公共交通和拼车可能会导致拥堵的道路网络中车辆数量增加，从而增加出行时间。避免通勤并在家工作的工人数量的增加可以抵消出行时间的增加。为了估计这些潜在影响，我们对 118 个大都市统计区域 6-9 年的美国社区调查通勤数据进行了调查。对于 74 个都市区，平均通勤出行时间仅用通勤乘用车的数量即可解释。通用公共道路局模型描述了每个都市区对额外车辆的敏感性。然后，使用生成的模型来确定当 25% 或 50% 的公交和拼车用户改用单人车辆时，每个都市区的平均出行时间的变化。在 25% 的模式转变下，旧金山和纽约等已经拥堵且公交客流量较高的地区可能会出现往返旅行时间增加 12 分钟（纽约）至 20 分钟（旧金山）的情况，个人通勤者每年损失的时间损失为 1065 美元和 1601 美元。通过在家工作的增加，可以避免旅行时间的增加和相应的成本。这项工作的主要贡献是提供一个模型来量化各种行为变化下通勤出行时间的潜在增加，这可以帮助制定更高效的通勤政策。
This work considers the sensitivity of commute travel times in US metro areas due to potential changes in commute patterns, for example caused by events such as pandemics. Permanent shifts away from transit and carpooling can add vehicles to congested road networks, increasing travel times. Growth in the number of workers who avoid commuting and work from home instead can offset travel time increases. To estimate these potential impacts, 6-9 years of American Community Survey commute data for 118 metropolitan statistical areas are investigated. For 74 of the metro areas, the average commute travel time is shown to be explainable using only the number of passenger vehicles used for commuting. A universal Bureau of Public Roads model characterizes the sensitivity of each metro area with respect to additional vehicles. The resulting models are then used to determine the change in average travel time for each metro area in scenarios when 25% or 50% of transit and carpool users switch to single occupancy vehicles. Under a 25% mode shift, areas such as San Francisco and New York that are already congested and have high transit ridership may experience round trip travel time increases of 12 minutes (New York) to 20 minutes (San Francisco), costing individual commuters $1065 and $1601 annually in lost time. The travel time increases and corresponding costs can be avoided with an increase in working from home. The main contribution of this work is to provide a model to quantify the potential increase in commute travel times under various behavior changes, that can aid policy making for more efficient commuting.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Bassolas, Aleix;Gallotti, Riccardo;Ramasco, Jose J.
通讯作者：
Ramasco, Jose J.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Camargo, Chico Q.;Bright, Jonathan;Hale, Scott A.
通讯作者：
Hale, Scott A.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Kucharski, Rafab;Drabicki, Arkadiusz
通讯作者：
Drabicki, Arkadiusz
DOI：
10.1016/j.trc.2013.07.002
发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Mahmassani, Hani S.;Saberi, Meead;Zockaie, Ali
通讯作者：
Zockaie, Ali
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Marinello, Samuele;Lolli, Francesco;Gamberini, Rita
通讯作者：
Gamberini, Rita