The millennium flood of July 1342 revisited
The millennium flood of July 1342 revisited
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重温 1342 年 7 月的千年洪水
DOI：
10.1016/j.catena.2014.12.010
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Simmer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Herget ;Kapala ;Krell ;Rustemeier ;Simmer
1342年7月的降水事件发生在现在德国中部的一个地区，其破坏程度很可能超过中欧历史上和近代任何其他报道的事件。根据历史资料，这一事件持续了几天，造成了广泛和极端的土壤侵蚀，形成了深达10米的沟壑，破坏了景观，摧毁了农民。在几个区域记录中，由此产生的河流水位是其整个记录中的最高值。值得注意的是，在没有大量降雨的地区也观察到了极端的洪水水位。偶尔有报道称洪水的空间范围从北海海岸延伸到北方意大利，但其他研究暗示，在这两者之间的集水区没有洪水报告。由于这些和其他部分矛盾的报告，我们严格审查的证据，以得出一个更确凿的事件概要。根据确认的报告，洪水和相关降雨，千年洪水，我们得出的结论是，该事件是由一个扩展的对流系统，主要限于流域的主要河流主要和邻近的上游支流多瑙河，易北河，威悉河和拉恩河降雨的强度足以造成毁灭性的土壤侵蚀和极端的洪水规模沿着河流集水区，甚至远在降雨区下游。根据我们认为可信度最高的那些报告所指出的地区最有可能与极端夏季降水有关的环流模式，中欧槽（TRM）配置似乎比经常假设的“Vb-轨道气旋”更可信（热那亚低）。沿主要河流沿着的峰值流量估计（Würzburg，法兰克福）和莱茵河（Mainz，科隆）的水位值约为有史以来水位计观测到的最大洪水的两倍;对于大多数下游水位计而言，这些值是整个历史记录中最大的。考虑到1342年中欧又发生了四次严重的洪水，以前与这次洪水事件有关的几个发现与我们的解释相符。
The precipitation event in July 1342, which happened over an area now situated in central Germany, most probably exceeded in damage any other reported event in historic and recent times in Central Europe. According to historic sources, the event lasted several days and resulted in widespread and extreme soil erosion with gullies up to 10 m deep which devastated landscapes and ruined farmers. In several regional records the resulting river levels were the highest of their entire records. Remarkable are also observations of extreme flood levels also in regions without significant rainfall. Occasionally the spatial extent of the flooding was reported to reach from the North Sea coast to northern Italy, but other studies hint at missing flood reports from catchments in-between. Due to these and other partially contradicting reports we critically review the body of evidence in order to come to a more conclusive synopsis of the event.Based on confirmed reports on floods and related rainfall, the millennium flood, we come to the conclusion that the event was generated by an extended convective system mainly confined to the catchment of the River Main and adjacent headwaters of tributaries of the Rivers Danube, Elbe, Weser and, Lahn. The intensity of the rainfall was sufficient to cause devastating soil erosion and extreme flood magnitudes along the river catchments even far downstream the precipitation area. Based on circulation patterns most likely related to extreme summer precipitation over the area indicated by those reports to which we attribute the highest confidence a Central European trough (TRM) configuration seems more plausible than the frequently postulated “Vb-track cyclone” (Genoa Low).Peak discharge estimations along the Rivers Main (Würzburg, Frankfurt) and Rhine (Mainz, Cologne) suggest values up to approximately twice the largest flood ever observed by a gauge; for most downstream gauges the values are the largest of the entire historic record. Several findings previously related to this flood event fit to our explanation, when considering that during the year 1342 four additional severe floods took place in Central Europe.
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作者：
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