“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的贸易发展状况研究

Research Objectives: To explore the feasibility of constructing light data for trade research. Research Methods: Using the panel data of countries along the “Belt and Road” from 1995 to 2012, adopting the ordinary least squares method, the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method and the instrumental variable method, taking light data as a substitute for GDP, and building a bridge through the traditional gravity model. Research Findings: The significant impacts of geographical distance, boundaries and regional agreements on the trade between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” indicate the effectiveness of light data for trade research; at the same time, the comparison results between the predicted trade trends from 1996 to 2012 and the actual trade show that the “Belt and Road” trade trends predicted by light data are basically in line with the actual trade. Research Innovations: For the first time, applying night light data to the research of the gravity model to analyze the trade development status between China and countries along the “Belt and Road”. Research Values: Pioneering the research on trade using night light data, and expanding relevant research in combination with the latest development and micro-foundations of the gravity model.

研究目标：探索构建灯光数据对贸易研究的可行性。研究方法：运用1995~2012年“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据，采用普通最小二乘法、泊松伪最大似然估计方法及工具变量法，以灯光数据作为GDP的替代量，通过传统引力模型搭建桥梁。研究发现：地理距离、边界及区域协定对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间贸易的显著影响表明灯光数据对贸易研究的有效性；同时，对1996~2012年贸易趋势的预测与实际贸易的对比结果显示，以灯光数据预测的“一带一路”贸易趋势与实际贸易基本吻合。研究创新：首次将夜间灯光数据应用于引力模型研究，对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易发展状况进行分析。研究价值：开拓夜间灯光数据研究贸易的先河，并结合引力模型的最新发展及微观基础思考拓展性的相关研究。