Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity.
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity.
复制标题
修正海冰漂移速度偏差后气候模式再现的观测南极海冰扩展。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z
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发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Eisenman I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sun S;Eisenman I
南极海冰面积在1979-2015年间显著扩大。这与最先进的气候模型不一致，这些模型通常模拟南极海冰覆盖的消退，以应对温室效应的增加。在这里，我们调查的假设，模型和观测之间的这种差异发生由于模拟偏差的海冰漂移速度。作为对照，我们使用社区地球系统模型（CESM）大环境，其中有40个过去和未来气候变化的实现，所有经历南极海冰退缩在最近几十年。我们修改CESM，以取代模拟的海冰速度场与卫星派生的估计观测到的海冰运动，我们模拟3实现最近的气候变化。我们发现，南极海冰扩展在所有这3个实现，与模拟的空间结构的扩展轴承相似的观测。结果表明，CESM未能捕捉到观测到的南极海冰扩张的原因是由于海冰漂移速度的模拟偏差，这意味着改进海冰运动的表示对于更准确的海冰预测至关重要。气候模型通常无法捕捉到近几十年来观测到的南极海冰扩张。在这里，作者表明，在消除海冰漂移速度的偏差后，观察到的扩张在气候模型中重现。
The Antarctic sea ice area expanded significantly during 1979–2015. This is at odds with state-of-the-art climate models, which typically simulate a receding Antarctic sea ice cover in response to increasing greenhouse forcing. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that this discrepancy between models and observations occurs due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity. As a control we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, which has 40 realizations of past and future climate change that all undergo Antarctic sea ice retreat during recent decades. We modify CESM to replace the simulated sea ice velocity field with a satellite-derived estimate of the observed sea ice motion, and we simulate 3 realizations of recent climate change. We find that the Antarctic sea ice expands in all 3 of these realizations, with the simulated spatial structure of the expansion bearing resemblance to observations. The results suggest that the reason CESM has failed to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion is due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity, implying that an improved representation of sea ice motion is crucial for more accurate sea ice projections. Climate models typically fail to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion during recent decades. Here, the authors show that the observed expansion is reproduced in a climate model after removing biases in the sea ice drift velocity.
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作者：
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