The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility
The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility
复制标题
宏观经济波动的深层历史根源
DOI：
10.1111/1475-4932.12278
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Leung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Tang;C. Leung
我们提出的跨国证据表明，一个国家的宏观经济波动性，无论是衡量产出增长的标准差或趋势增长突破的发生，是显着影响该国的历史变量。特别是，国家一级政治机构历史较长的国家在战后时期经历的宏观经济波动较小。鲁棒性检查显示，这一历史变量对波动性的影响仍然显着和实质性的主机的结构变量控制后，在以前的研究。我们还发现，在宏观经济波动水平较高的国家，国家历史变量更为重要。
We present cross-country evidence that a country’s macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country’s historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of state-level political institutions experience less macroeconomic volatility in post-war periods. Robustness checks reveal that the effect of this historical variable on volatility remains significant and substantial after controlling for a host of structural variables investigated in previous studies. We also find that the state history variable is more important in countries with a higher level of macroeconomic volatility.
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Galor, O;Weil, DN
通讯作者：
Weil, DN