How to develop renewable power in China? A cost-effective perspective.
How to develop renewable power in China? A cost-effective perspective.
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DOI：
10.1155/2014/946932
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shen S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cong RG;Shen S
为应对气候变化和能源安全问题，中国政府大力发展可再生能源，将其作为传统电力的重要替代能源。本文采用学习曲线模型描述了可再生能源装机容量累积所带来的单位投资成本下降，采用技术扩散模型分析了可再生能源发电的潜力。结合投资成本、技术潜力和中国未来社会发展情景分析，建立可再生能源优化模型（RPOM），分析2009 - 2020年三种可再生能源在成本效益下的最优发展路径。结果表明：（1）2020年风电、太阳能和生物质发电最佳累计装机容量分别达到169000 MW、20000 MW和30000 MW;（2）可再生能源发展呈现间歇性特征;（3）2020年风电、太阳能和生物质能的单位投资成本分别为4500、11500和5700元/KW;（4）太阳能和生物质能的学习曲线效应以贴现效应为主;（5）可再生能源上网比例的上升将首先促进风电的发展，然后是太阳能发电和生物质能发电。
To address the problems of climate change and energy security, Chinese government strived to develop renewable power as an important alternative of conventional electricity. In this paper, the learning curve model is employed to describe the decreasing unit investment cost due to accumulated installed capacity; the technology diffusion model is used to analyze the potential of renewable power. Combined with the investment cost, the technology potential, and scenario analysis of China social development in the future, we develop the Renewable Power Optimization Model (RPOM) to analyze the optimal development paths of three sources of renewable power from 2009 to 2020 in a cost-effective way. Results show that (1) the optimal accumulated installed capacities of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will reach 169000, 20000, and 30000 MW in 2020; (2) the developments of renewable power show the intermittent feature; (3) the unit investment costs of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will be 4500, 11500, and 5700 Yuan/KW in 2020; (4) the discounting effect dominates the learning curve effect for solar and biomass powers; (5) the rise of on-grid ratio of renewable power will first promote the development of wind power and then solar power and biomass power.
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