The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China
The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China
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城市化增长模式对二氧化碳排放的影响：来自中国西部贵州的证据
DOI：
10.3390/land11081211
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Min Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Canying Zeng;Shaohua Wu;Hua Zhou;Min Cheng
基于一个地区现有的城市格局，很少有人关注未来城市扩张模式对碳排放的影响。本研究以黔中城市群为研究区，基于历史数据分析研究区区域城镇化与CO2排放的关系。然后，在针对未来 15 年的四种情景中对城市增长模式进行了模拟，这些情景基于元胞自动机模型。在每种不同的情景中，我们都预测了二氧化碳排放量，并提供了有关这些排放量影响的一些含义。结果表明，随着城市土地利用强度的增加，CO2排放量先增加后减少；然而，二氧化碳排放量下降的速度比上升的速度慢得多。此外，未来15年，城市扩张将导致二氧化碳排放量大幅增加。研究发现，空间集聚情景中二氧化碳排放量最低，空间分散情景中二氧化碳排放量最高。空间集聚情景有利于理解二氧化碳排放最终如何达到峰值；但研究区内不同城市应采取不同的城市扩张模式。这些研究成果可为政府的城市规划提供参考指导。
Little attention has been paid to the impact of future urban expansion patterns on carbon emissions based on the existing urban pattern of a region. This study used the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and the relationships between regional urbanization and CO2 emissions in the study area were analyzed based on historical data. Urban growth patterns were then simulated in four scenarios that focused on the next 15 years, and they were based on the cellular automaton model. In each different scenario, the CO2 emissions were predicted, and some implications regarding the impact of those emissions were provided. The results showed that as urban land-use intensity increases, CO2 emissions first increase then decrease; however, the rate of decline for CO2 emissions is much slower than the rate at which it rises. Moreover, in the next 15 years, urban expansion will lead to a significant increase in CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions were found to be lowest in the spatial agglomeration scenario and highest in the spatial dispersion scenario. The spatial agglomeration scenario was conducive to understanding how CO2 emissions eventually peak; however, different cities in the study area should adopt different urban expansion patterns. These research results can provide a reference guide for the government with regard to urban planning.
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