The Antarctic ozone hole and the pattern effect on climate sensitivity.
The Antarctic ozone hole and the pattern effect on climate sensitivity.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2207889119
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发表时间：
2022-08-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
我们提供了一个角度来看，最近的科学文献，认为在热带太平洋东部的相对冷却确定的气候敏感性的降低可能是由南极臭氧洞的开始，在1980年左右。如果这是真的，模式效应可能会持续只要臭氧空洞，近60年。这将继续减少与气候敏感性的模式效应相关的变暖。此外，拉尼娜事件发生的可能性增加意味着美国西南部干旱的可能性增加，热带太平洋东部的其他冷却影响也会增加。自1980年以来，热带太平洋一直非常寒冷，而更广泛的热带地区已经变暖。这导致中纬度地区出现异常天气，并降低了与热带太平洋东部较冷的沃茨上空低云丰富度增加有关的气候的明显敏感性。最近的模拟工作表明，南极洲周围南大洋的温度较低，可能导致热带太平洋东部的温度较低。在这里，我们认为，与南极臭氧洞相关的表面风异常可能会导致南大洋延伸到热带地区的温度降低。我们使用的纬向风变率的南方环形模式的短期变率，以显示在南大洋，南大洋冷却，并在热带太平洋东部冷却的表面纬向风变化之间的关联。这表明，热带太平洋东部的冷却可能与南极臭氧洞的出现有关。
We provide a perspective on recent scientific literature that argues the reduction in climate sensitivity identified with relative cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean could be caused by the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole starting in about 1980. If this is true, the pattern effect could persist as long as the ozone hole, nearly 60 y. This would continue the reduction in warming associated with the pattern effect on climate sensitivity. In addition, increased probability of La Niña events would imply an increased chance of drought in the American Southwest and other impacts of cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. Since about 1980, the tropical Pacific has been anomalously cold, while the broader tropics have warmed. This has caused anomalous weather in midlatitudes as well as a reduction in the apparent sensitivity of the climate associated with enhanced low-cloud abundance over the cooler waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. Recent modeling work has shown that cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean around Antarctica can lead to cooler temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we suggest that surface wind anomalies associated with the Antarctic ozone hole can cause cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean that extend into the tropics. We use the short-term variability of the Southern Annular Mode of zonal wind variability to show an association between surface zonal wind variations over the Southern Ocean, cooling over the Southern Ocean, and cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. This suggests that the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific may be associated with the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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