Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.
Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.
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DOI：
10.1002/ece3.1418
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Yoder, Anne D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Jason L.;Yoder, Anne D.
关键词：
地理空间建模是保护生物学家可用于估计地球生物多样性当前物种范围的最强大工具之一。现在，借助预测气候模型的优势，可以利用这些方法来了解未来对受威胁生物群的影响。在这里，我们在对未来气候变化的保守估计下采用预测模型来研究对马达加斯加狐猴未来丰度和地理分布的影响。利用原始文献中的分布数据，我们采用集合物种分布模型和地理空间分析来预测物种分布的未来变化。当前的物种分布模型 (SDM) 是在 BIOMOD2 框架内创建的，该框架利用了十种广泛使用的建模技术。然后将未来和当前的 SDM 相互减去，并计算收缩、扩张和稳定的面积。模型过度预测是与马达加斯加分类单元相关的常见问题。因此，我们引入了新的方法来整合有关扩散潜力的生物数据，以更好地为假缺席点的选择提供信息。这项研究预测，在接下来的 70 年里，所检查的 57 个物种中有 60% 将经历相当大范围的减少，这完全是由于未来的气候变化。在这些物种中，范围大小预计将平均减少 59.6%。预计 9 种狐猴 (16%) 的分布范围将扩大，13 种狐猴 (22.8%) 的分布范围预计将随着时间的推移保持稳定。物种分布范围将经历严重的变化，通常是收缩，对于大多数狐猴物种来说，地理分布将发生相当大的改变。我们确定了三个急需保护的地区，并得出结论，战略管理的森林走廊必须是狐猴和其他生物多样性保护战略的关键组成部分。鉴于这里提供的结果没有考虑到与人类活动有关的持续栖息地破坏的模式，这一建议显得更加紧迫。
Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Harper, Grady J.;Steininger, Marc K.;Hawkins, Frank
通讯作者：
Hawkins, Frank
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Geroy, I. J.;Gribb, M. M.;McNamara, J. P.
通讯作者：
McNamara, J. P.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Crisp, MD;Laffan, S;Monro, A
通讯作者：
Monro, A
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
FRIEDMAN, JH
通讯作者：
FRIEDMAN, JH