The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities.
The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.02110859
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发表时间：
2002-09
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Schwartz J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braga AL;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J
我们在美国12个城市进行了时间序列分析，以估计天气对呼吸道和心血管疾病（CVD）死亡的急性影响和滞后影响。我们适合广义加性泊松回归为每个城市使用非参数光滑函数来控制长期趋势，季节和气压。我们还控制了星期几。我们估计的温度和湿度的分布滞后模型的基础上的滞后结构的影响。在寒冷的城市，高温和低温都与CVD死亡增加有关。一般来说，低温的影响持续数日，而高温的影响仅限于死亡当天或前一天。对于心肌梗死（MI），炎热天气的影响是寒冷天气影响的两倍，而对于所有CVD死亡，炎热天气的影响是寒冷天气影响的五分之一。炎热天气的影响包括一些收获，因为我们观察到几天后死亡的赤字，我们没有观察到寒冷天气的影响。在炎热的城市，炎热或寒冷的气温对心血管疾病或肺炎死亡没有太大影响。然而，对于MI和慢性阻塞性肺病死亡，我们观察到高温的滞后效应（分别为滞后4-6和滞后3和4）。我们没有看到湿度影响的明确模式。在分层模型中，夏季和冬季温度的较大方差分别与热天和冷天对呼吸道死亡的较大影响相关。
We carried out time-series analyses in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the lagged influence of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend, season, and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity based on a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased CVD deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the day before. For myocardial infarctions (MI), the effect of hot days was twice as large as the cold-day effect, whereas for all CVD deaths the hot-day effect was five times smaller than the cold-day effect. The effect of hot days included some harvesting, because we observed a deficit of deaths a few days later, which we did not observe for the cold-day effect. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on CVD or pneumonia deaths. However, for MI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths, we observed lagged effects of hot temperatures (lags 4-6 and lags 3 and 4, respectively). We saw no clear pattern for the effect of humidity. In hierarchical models, greater variance of summer and winter temperature was associated with larger effects for hot and cold days, respectively, on respiratory deaths.
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影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Kalkstein, LS;Greene, JS
通讯作者：
Greene, JS
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Schwartz, J
通讯作者：
Schwartz, J
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Zanobetti, A;Schwartz, J;Dockery, DW
通讯作者：
Dockery, DW
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
ALMON, S
通讯作者：
ALMON, S
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
McGeehin, MA;Mirabelli, M
通讯作者：
Mirabelli, M