Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.
Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y
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发表时间：
2021-10-01
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Ihekweazu C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Redding DW;Gibb R;Dan-Nwafor CC;Ilori EA;Yashe RU;Oladele SH;Amedu MO;Iniobong A;Attfield LA;Donnelly CA;Abubakar I;Jones KE;Ihekweazu C
拉沙热是西非长期存在的公共卫生问题。最近的分子研究证实了啮齿动物宿主（Mastomys natalensis）在驱动人类感染中的基本作用，但控制和预防工作仍然受到对该疾病的真实发病率、地理分布和潜在驱动因素的有限基线了解的阻碍。在这里，我们表明拉沙热的发生和发病率受到气候、贫困、农业和城市化因素的影响。然而，异构的报告流程和诊断实验室的访问似乎也是观察到的疾病发病率分布不均匀的重要驱动因素。使用时空预测模型，我们表明，与基线模型相比，包括气候变化在内的回顾性预测价值增加了（样本外预测误差减少了 11%）。然而，对 2020 年的预测表明，气候驱动模型的总体表现与基线模型相似。总体而言，随着监测的不断改进，预测拉沙热发病率可能为卫生规划提供信息。拉沙热是一种啮齿动物传播的病毒性出血热，是西非的一个公共卫生问题。在这里，作者利用尼日利亚的监测数据开发了疾病的社会生态驱动因素的时空模型，并找到了气候敏感性的证据。
Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning. Lassa Fever is a rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that is a public health problem in West Africa. Here, the authors develop a spatiotemporal model of the socioecological drivers of disease using surveillance data from Nigeria, and find evidence of climate sensitivity.
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.16-0675
发表时间：
2017-04
期刊：
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bonwitt J;Sáez AM;Lamin J;Ansumana R;Dawson M;Buanie J;Lamin J;Sondufu D;Borchert M;Sahr F;Fichet-Calvet E;Brown H
通讯作者：
Brown H
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth;Rogers, David John
通讯作者：
Rogers, David John
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth;Lecompte, Emilie;Ter Meulen, Jan
通讯作者：
Ter Meulen, Jan
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Fletcher, Isabel K.;Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.;Lowe, Rachel
通讯作者：
Lowe, Rachel
影响因子：
19
作者：
Dan-Nwafor, Chioma C.;Furuse, Yuki;Ihekweazu, Chikwe
通讯作者：
Ihekweazu, Chikwe