Is repeat serum urate testing superior to a single test to predict incident gout over time?
Is repeat serum urate testing superior to a single test to predict incident gout over time?
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0263175
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Dalbeth N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stewart S;Phipps-Green A;Gamble GD;Stamp LK;Taylor WJ;Neogi T;Merriman TR;Dalbeth N
尿酸含量升高是纵向研究的最重要的灾难性因素。包括公开可用的同类群体，从第二次尿素测量中对痛风事件进行了3-5年的措施，以计算四个量子的预测能力，即在事件中的四个量子iver操作员计算曲线（AUC）下的特征（ROC）曲线（AUC）统计，以比较四个同类的四个测量值。 S。340μmol/L（5.71 mg/dl），p <0.001），平均相距3.5年，但第一和第二个测量高度相关（r = 0.81，p <0.001）。 –0.87）证明重复的血清尿酸尿酸盐测试不优于单一的血清尿酸尿酸尿素预测，以期在大约十年中。
Elevated serum urate is the most important causal risk factor for developing gout. However, in longitudinal cohort studies, a small proportion of people with normal urate levels develop gout and the majority of those with high urate levels do not. These observations may be due to subsequent variations in serum urate over time. Our analysis examined whether single or repeat testing of serum urate more accurately predicts incident gout over time. Individual participant data from three publicly-available cohorts were included. Data from paired serum urate measures 3–5 years apart, followed by an assessment of gout incidence 5–6 years from the second urate measure were used to calculate the predictive ability of four measures of serum urate on incident gout: the first measure, the second measure, the average of the two measures, and the highest of the two measures. Participants with prevalent gout prior to the second measure were excluded. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) statistics were computed to compare the four measures. A total of 16,017 participants were included across the three cohorts, with a mean follow-up from the first serum urate test of 9.3 years (range 8.9–10.1 years). Overall, there was a small increase in the mean serum urate between the first and second measures (322 μmol/L (5.42 mg/dL) vs. 340 μmol/L (5.71 mg/dL), P<0.001) which were a mean of 3.5 years apart, but the first and second measures were highly correlated (r = 0.81, P<0.001). No differences were observed in the predictive ability of incident gout between the four measures of serum urate measurement with ROC curve AUC statistics ranging between 0.81 (95% confidence intervals: 0.78–0.84) and 0.84 (95% confidence intervals: 0.81–0.87). These data show that repeat serum urate testing is not superior to a single measure of serum urate for prediction of incident gout over approximately one decade.
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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