A new hyperbolic GARCH model

A new hyperbolic GARCH model
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一种新的双曲 GARCH 模型

DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.034
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发表时间:
2015-12
影响因子:
6.3
通讯作者:
Li Guodong
Li Guodong
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Muyi;Li Wai Keung;Li Guodong

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在对波动率的长期相关性进行建模时,有两种常用的双曲线GARCH过程,即FIGARCH过程和HYGARCH过程。然而,FIGARCH过程总是具有无穷大的方差,而HYGARCH模型具有更复杂的形式。本文在普通GARCH模型和综合GARCH模型之间架起了一座简单的桥梁,从而沿着FIGARCH模型的思路建立了一个新的双曲GARCH模型。与HYGARCH模型一样,新模型允许有限方差的存在,从而弥补了FIGARCH过程的缺陷,同时它的形式几乎与FIGARCH模型一样简单。推导了两种推理工具,包括检验模型充分性的高斯QMLE和混合检验,并构造了一个易于实现的双曲记忆检验。通过仿真实验对它们的有限样本性能进行了评估,并通过一个实证例子进一步支持了我们的新模型。
There are two commonly used hyperbolic GARCH processes, the FIGARCH and HYGARCH processes, in modeling the long-range dependence in volatility. However, the FIGARCH process always has infinite variance, and the HYGARCH model has a more complicated form. This paper builds a simple bridge between a common GARCH model and an integrated GARCH model, and hence a new hyperbolic GARCH model along the lines of FIGARCH models. The new model remedies the drawback of FIGARCH processes by allowing the existence of finite variance as in HYGARCH models, while it has a form nearly as simple as the FIGARCH model. Two inference tools, including the Gaussian QMLE and a portmanteau test for the adequacy of the fitted model, are derived, and an easily implemented test for hyperbolic memory is also constructed. Their finite sample performances are evaluated by simulation experiments, and an empirical example gives further support to our new model.
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影响因子: 6.1
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