Implementation and performance analysis of a high resolution coupled numerical weather and river runoff prediction model system for an Alpine catchment
Implementation and performance analysis of a high resolution coupled numerical weather and river runoff prediction model system for an Alpine catchment
复制标题
高山流域高分辨率数值天气与河流径流耦合预测模型系统的实现和性能分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.06.001
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Werhahn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Smiatek;H. Kunstmann;J. Werhahn
本文描述了一个在Perl对象环境(POE)框架下实现的单向耦合的高分辨率数值天气和河流径流预报系统，并给出了该系统在德国南部安默尔河阿尔卑斯山流域的应用和性能分析。模拟系统采用了单向运行的100米×100米网格分辨率的水文水量平衡模式WASIM-ETH和3.5公里网格分辨率的数值天气预报模式(NWP)MM5。状态和事件驱动的预报系统通过基于SOAP的Web服务实现输入数据的下载、输入数据的提供以及水文模型与实测场和预报场的运行。它应用了滞后集合预报系统(EPS)，考虑了近期和以前的NWP预报。建立并设计了高寒地区洪水预报模拟系统。对2005年10月1日至2010年9月30日期间观测径流最高的所有时段进行了业务运行和延长的时间片试验。系统的应用展示了基于PoE的系统在组网、分布式计算以及各种实验设置方面的巨大潜力。河川径流模拟结果与实测径流有较高的相关性，模拟结果表明，用站内插降水驱动的径流与实测值高度相关。预报结果表明，由于复杂山区预报降雨的时间和数量不足，预报效果存在局限性。在应用滞后集合预报系统后，预报技能得到了提高。
This study describes the implementation of a one way coupled high resolution numerical weather and river runoff forecasting system within the Perl Object Environment (POE) framework and presents its application and performance analysis for the Alpine catchment of the Ammer River located in southern Germany. The simulation system employs the hydrological water balance model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m × 100 m grid resolution one way coupled with the numerical weather prediction model (NWP) MM5 driven at 3.5 km grid cell resolution. The state and event driven forecasting system implements the input data download, input data provision via SOAP based WEB service and the run of the hydrology model with observed and with predicted NWP meteorology fields. It applies a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. The simulation system has been setup and designed for flood forecasting in the alpine environment. It is run operationally as well as in extended time slice experiments for all episodes with highest observed runoff in the period 01.10.2005–30.09.2010. The system application demonstrates the great potential of the POE based system in networking, distributed computing as well in the setup of various experiments. The river runoff simulation results show high correlation with observed runoff when driven with precipitation interpolated from station observations. The performance of the forecast shows limitations resulting from deficient timing and amount of the predicted rainfall in the complex mountainous area. Forecast skills were improved after application of a lagged ensemble prediction system.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Pappenberger, Florian
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian