The Brexit Context
The Brexit Context
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英国脱欧背景
DOI：
10.1093/pa/gsx054
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Hagemann S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hagemann S
在2016年英国公投脱欧和美国唐纳德·特朗普获胜后，欧盟（EU）面临着一个要么成功要么失败的时刻，因为它开始了关键成员国全国大选的一年：荷兰选民在2017年3月投票;法国在4月/5月和6月进行总统和立法选举的投票箱;英国人也在6月投票，德国在9月举行选举，捷克共和国在10月举行立法选举（图10.1）。在每一次选举中，欧盟都是候选人和政党的关键问题。事实上，在今天的欧洲，政府和反对党至少在一定程度上是由选民根据他们对欧盟成员国身份和政策的立场来评判的。各国在这方面的表现有所不同（Hobolt，2016），但在今年的选举之后，毫无疑问，各国政府对欧盟的态度在选举期间发挥着重要作用。欧盟不仅将在2017年的选举中幸存下来，而且现在正走上成员国之间进一步一体化的道路。这些措施不会没有挑战，因为政府之间的严重分歧潜伏在表面之下。尽管如此，在英国2017年大选之后，欧盟27国政府（其余成员国通常被称为）似乎比多年来更加一致。因此，正是在这种背景下，与梅的计划相反，英国大选结果让政府处于两难境地：应对艰难的国内挑战--包括悬而未决的问题--同时与团结强大的欧盟谈判达成一项决定一切的协议。
After the vote for Brexit in the United Kingdom referendum in 2016 and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States, the European Union (EU) faced a make-it-or-break-it moment as it embarked on a year of national elections in key member states: the electorate in the Netherlands voted in March 2017; France went to the ballot box for the presidential and legislative elections in April/May and June; the British also cast their vote in June; Germany held elections in September and the Czech Republic their legislative election in October (Figure 10.1). In each of these elections, the EU was a crucial issue for the candidates and parties. Indeed, in today’s Europe, governments and opposition parties are—at least partly—judged by their electorates based on their stance on EU membership and policies. There is some variation in how this is played out across countries (Hobolt, 2016), but after this year’s round of elections there is no doubt that national governments’ attitudes towards the European Union play an important role at election time. The EU will not only survive the 2017 round of elections but is now set on a course of further integration between its member states. Such steps will not come without its challenges, as stark divisions between the governments lurk beneath the surface. Nevertheless, in the aftermath of the UK’s 2017 general election, the governments of the EU27 (as the remaining member states are popularly referred to) appeared more aligned than for years. Hence, it is within this context, and contrary to Mrs May’s plan, that the UK election outcome has left the government between a rock and a hard place: managing difficult domestic challenges—including a hung parliament—while negotiating an all-defining deal with a united and strong European Union.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1111/jcms.12194
发表时间：
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期刊：
ERN: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances (Topic)
影响因子：
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作者：
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