Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?
Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?
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DOI：
10.1002/ece3.1503
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发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Menzel, Annette
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jochner, Susanne;Menzel, Annette
虽然最近全球气温变暖的趋势不像十年前观察到的那样明显，但全球平均气温仍然处于很高的水平。植物物候--被认为是气候变化的合适指标--是否也以类似的方式做出反应，即它是否仍然反映了最近的温度变化？我们详细探讨了长期开花开始日期的雪花莲，樱桃和石灰树和相关的春季温度在三个地点在德国（1901-2012年）使用贝叶斯多变点方法。我们调查了在过去的十年中，平均春季温度变化是否被放大或减缓，以及植物物候如何对最近的温度变化做出反应。使用不同的端点（即，2002年和2012年），我们比较了趋势的差异，并推断了可能的差异，这些差异是由外推物候和气象数据引起的。新的多变点方法的特点是一个增强的结构和更大的灵活性相比，一个变点模型。然而，物候（气象）记录的最高模型概率仍然获得了一个变化点（线性）模型。近十年来显著的变暖趋势只显示了3月至5月的平均气温，这里用一个或两个变点模型更好地描述。在分析的大多数情况下，温度的变化很好地反映了物候变化。然而，3月至5月的温度与1901-2012年期间石灰树开花的发病日期不太强烈，指出光周期限制或未满足的冷却要求的可能影响。由于气温上升速度放缓，对2002年结束的记录进行的分析显示，与2012年结束的记录相比，有明显的差异。因此，趋势的外推（沿着统计方法的选择）可能会导致明显不同的结果，为了不过度或低估未来的物候变化，应将最新的数据进行整合。
Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology – which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change – respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901–2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2178
发表时间：
2011-08-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Ho, Chang-Hoi;Choi, Yong-Sang
通讯作者：
Choi, Yong-Sang
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Dose, V;Menzel, A
通讯作者：
Menzel, A
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Jochner, Susanne C.;Beck, Isabelle;Menzel, Annette
通讯作者：
Menzel, Annette
干旱区耕地面积变化影响因素——以西北石羊河流域为例
影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Cannone, Nicolem;Sgorbati, Sergio;Guglielmin, Mauro
通讯作者：
Guglielmin, Mauro
影响因子：
6.5
作者：
LEOPOLD, AC
通讯作者：
LEOPOLD, AC