A data-driven approach to investigate the impact of air temperature on the efficiencies of coal and natural gas generators

A data-driven approach to investigate the impact of air temperature on the efficiencies of coal and natural gas generators
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采用数据驱动的方法来研究气温对煤炭和天然气发电机效率的影响

DOI:
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113486
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发表时间:
2019
期刊:
影响因子:
11.2
通讯作者:
Sanders, Kelly T.
Sanders, Kelly T.
中科院分区:
工程技术1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Meng, Measrainsey;Sanders, Kelly T.

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热电发电机的效率取决于许多操作和气候变量,包括环境空气温度。到目前为止,还没有一个数据驱动的分析气候变异性对发电机性能的影响,其中包括一组具有统计代表性的发电机。该研究开发了回归模型,以估计2008年至2017年期间,超过1000台煤炭和天然气发电机的效率随环境空气温度和操作变量的变化,包括不同的燃料类型,原动机,冷却系统和气候区。干式冷却发电机的效率,特别是那些在炎热和干燥的气候,表现出最大的敏感性,在环境温度的增加。使用湿式冷却系统的发电机的结果在很大程度上是不确定的,很可能是因为其他因素,如冷却水温度,是效率的更好预测因素。在理论模型中,天然气燃烧发电机的效率对空气温度的上升表现出很大的敏感性,但在我们的研究结果中却有一种违反直觉的趋势,即在最热和最干燥的气候中损失相对较小。这一结果可能是由于炎热和干旱地区的天然气燃烧发电机通常利用进气冷却技术来降低环境空气进入压缩机之前的温度,从而减轻效率损失。开发的分析框架提供了清洁,处理和合并联邦可用的发电和气候数据集的通用方法,以增加其在未来研究中的价值。
The efficiency of a thermoelectric generator is dependent on a number of operational and climatic variables, including ambient air temperature. To date, there has not been a data-driven analysis of the impacts of climate variability on electricity generator performance that includes a statistically representative set of generators. This study develops regression models to estimate changes in the efficiencies of over one thousand coal and natural gas generators as a function of ambient air temperature and operational variables, across different fuel types, prime movers, cooling systems, and climate zones during the years ranging from 2008 to 2017. The efficiencies of generators with dry cooling, particularly those in hot and dry climates, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to increases in ambient temperature. Results for generators utilizing wet cooling systems were largely inconclusive, most likely because other factors, such as cooling water temperature, are better predictors of efficiency. Natural gas combustion generator efficiencies exhibit large sensitivities to rises in air temperature in theoretical models but had a counterintuitive trend in our findings, where losses were relatively small in the hottest and driest climates. This result is likely due to the fact that natural gas combustion generators in hot and arid regions often utilize inlet air cooling technologies to reduce the temperature of ambient air before it enters the compressor, thereby mitigating efficiency losses. The analytical framework developed offers generalized methods for cleaning, processing, and merging federally available electricity generation and climate datasets to increase their value in future studies.
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