Voluntary risk mitigation behaviour can reduce impact of SARS-CoV-2: a real-time modelling study of the January 2022 Omicron wave in England.
Voluntary risk mitigation behaviour can reduce impact of SARS-CoV-2: a real-time modelling study of the January 2022 Omicron wave in England.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12916-022-02714-5
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发表时间：
2023-01-19
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Danon, Leon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen;Northstone, Kate;Pellis, Lorenzo;Scarabel, Francesca;Thomas, Amy;Nixon, Emily;Matthews, David A.;Bowyer, Vicky;Garcia, Maria Paz;Steves, Claire J.;Timpson, Nicholas J.;Danon, Leon
关键词：
预测未来 SARS-CoV-2 浪潮的可能规模对于公共卫生规划是必要的。在英格兰，2021 年 12 月推出了自愿“B 计划”缓解措施，包括增加在家工作和在商店戴口罩，但没有限制社交接触。自愿风险缓解行为对未来 SARS-CoV-2 负担的影响尚不清楚。我们在 2021 年冬季节日之前对风险缓解行为进行了一项快速在线调查，并于 2021 年 12 月在英国的两项纵向队列研究中进行了部署（雅芳父母和儿童纵向研究 (ALSPAC) 和 TwinsUK/COVID 症状研究 (CSS) 生物库）。使用基于个体的概率模型来预测英格兰 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron 变异参数的社会接触者之间的 COVID-19 传播和实际疫苗覆盖率SARS-CoV-2 Omicron 浪潮在英格兰对有效繁殖数和累积感染、住院和死亡的潜在影响。利用调查结果，我们实时估计了如果在整个疫情浪潮中实施自愿风险缓解行为对英格兰 Omicron 浪潮的影响。超过 95% 的调查受访者（NALSPAC = 2686 和 NTwins = 6155）报告了一些风险缓解行为，其中最常报告的是接种疫苗和使用家庭检测套件。不到一半的受访者表示他们的行为是由于“B 计划”。我们估计，在没有风险缓解行为的情况下，Omicron 变体的有效繁殖数在 2.5 到 3.5 之间。由于疫苗对 Omicron 变种感染的有效性降低，我们的模型估计表明，在当前浪潮中，55% 至 60% 的英国人口可能被感染，累计死亡人数为 12,000 至 46,000 人，具体取决于对严重程度和疫苗有效性的假设。实际死亡人数为15,208人（2021年11月26日至2022年3月1日）。我们估计，自愿降低风险措施可以将有效繁殖数降低至 1.8 至 2.2 之间，并将累计死亡人数减少高达 24%。预测未来的感染负担受到疾病严重程度和疫苗有效性估计的不确定性的影响。除了生物学上的不确定性之外，我们还表明，自愿措施可大大减少 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron 变种的预计影响，但仅靠自愿措施不太可能完全控制传播。在线版本包含可在 10.1186/s12916-022-02714-5 获取的补充材料。
Predicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary “plan B” mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown. We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave. Over 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC = 2686 and NTwins = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to “plan B”. We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021–1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%. Predicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02714-5.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Barnard, Rosanna C.;Davies, Nicholas G.;Jit, Mark;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Tilston N;Edmunds WJ;Eames KT
通讯作者：
Eames KT
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.1037
发表时间：
2013-08-22
期刊：
Proceedings. Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Danon L;Read JM;House TA;Vernon MC;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ
影响因子：
--
作者：
Northstone, Kate;Lewcock, Melanie;Wells, Nicholas
通讯作者：
Wells, Nicholas
影响因子：
--
作者：
Medley, Graham F.
通讯作者：
Medley, Graham F.