Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.
Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y
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发表时间：
2022-08-19
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnard, Rosanna C.;Davies, Nicholas G.;Jit, Mark;Edmunds, W. John
英国承受了新冠疫情的沉重负担，自2020年初以来出现了多波新冠病毒传播，自2021年末奥密克戎变异株出现和传播以来感染水平较高。为应对奥密克戎病例的增加，英国加快了加强针接种，并向所有成年人提供。利用一个拟合了两年多流行病学数据的模型，我们预测了到2022年12月英国新冠病毒感染、住院和死亡的潜在动态。我们考虑了包括未来行为变化和免疫力下降在内的关键不确定因素，并评估了2021年10月至2022年12月期间加强针接种在减轻新冠疾病负担方面的有效性。如果没有新的变异株出现，预计新冠病毒传播将会下降，在未来几个月内保持较低水平。2022年晚些时候预计的新冠病毒传播反弹程度在很大程度上取决于关于免疫力下降的假设，在一定程度上也取决于行为和季节性。
这项数学建模研究在假设奥密克戎BA.2亚分支仍占主导的情况下，预测了到2022年底英国新冠病毒的动态。研究表明，加强针接种在减轻严重后果方面非常有效，未来的动态将在很大程度上取决于关于免疫力下降的假设。
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality. This mathematical modelling study projects the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England until the end of 2022 assuming that the Omicron BA.2 sublineage remains dominant. They show that booster vaccination was highly effective in mitigating severe outcomes and that future dynamics will depend greatly on assumptions about waning immunity.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
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作者：
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Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2119451
发表时间：
2022-04-21
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
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Lopez Bernal J
影响因子：
64.8
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00267-6
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Microbe
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Davenport MP