A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia.
A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.sjbs.2017.06.001
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
AlJohani SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eifan SA;Nour I;Hanif A;Zamzam AMM;AlJohani SM
自2012年首次出现中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）以来，沙特阿拉伯的发病率一直很高。这表明这个国家处于持续的风险之中。在沙特阿拉伯，采用易感-感染-恢复（SIR）模型，采用贝叶斯方法估计两年间隔（2013年5月- 2015年5月）内5个确定的聚类中随时间变化的繁殖数(R)，检测MERS-CoV感染的流行水平，然后对最显著的聚类进行敏感性分析。在每年的3月至5月期间检测到显著的mers冠状病毒高峰。此外，MERS-CoV感染以西部地区（40.8%）和中部地区（31.9%）为主，其次是东部地区（20%）。基于时间的贝叶斯方法表明，在基线情景中，所有地区都存在亚临界流行（R: 0.85-0.97）。但在敏感性分析情景中，只有中西部地区（R: 1.08 ~ 1.12）超过了代表该地区流行水平的R势限。发现散发病例的影响相对微不足道，并确定了对MERS-CoV传播动力学缺乏人畜共患影响。本研究结果将有助于评估MERS-CoV感染的未来进展，更好地了解和控制干预措施。
Since the initial emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, a high incidence rate has been observed in Saudi Arabia. This suggests that the country is at continuous risk. The epidemic level of MERS-CoV infection was examined in Saudi Arabia by the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model using a Bayesian approach for estimation of time dependent reproduction number (R) across a two-year interval (May, 2013-May, 2015) in five defined clusters, followed by sensitivity analysis of the most significant clusters. Significant MERS-CoV peaks were detected in the period between March and May of each year. Moreover, MERS-CoV infection was highlighted in western (40.8%) and central (31.9%) regions, followed by eastern region (20%). The temporal-based Bayesian approach indicated a sub-critical epidemic in all regions in the baseline scenario (R: 0.85–0.97). However, R potential limit was exceeded in the sensitivity analysis scenario in only central and western regions (R: 1.08–1.12) that denoted epidemic level in those regions. The impact of sporadic cases was found relatively insignificant and pinpointed to the lack of zoonotic influence on MERS-CoV transmission dynamics. The results of current study would be helpful for evaluation of future progression of MERS-CoV infections, better understanding and control interventions.
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影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Fraser, Christophe;Van Kerkhove, Maria D.;Donnelly, Christi A.;Riley, Steven;Rambaut, Andrew;Enouf, Vincent;van der Werf, Sylvie;Ferguson, Neil M.
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciu812
发表时间：
2015-02-01
期刊：
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
影响因子：
--
作者：
Drosten C;Muth D;Corman VM;Hussain R;Al Masri M;HajOmar W;Landt O;Assiri A;Eckerle I;Al Shangiti A;Al-Tawfiq JA;Albarrak A;Zumla A;Rambaut A;Memish ZA
通讯作者：
Memish ZA
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.23.20824
发表时间：
2014-06-12
期刊：
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Poletto, C;Pelat, C;Colizza, V
通讯作者：
Colizza, V
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1519235113
发表时间：
2016-08-09
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Nouvellet, Pierre;Ferguson, Neil M.
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Abolfotouh MA;AlQarni AA;Al-Ghamdi SM;Salam M;Al-Assiri MH;Balkhy HH
通讯作者：
Balkhy HH