Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control.
Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control.
复制标题
2004年泰国鸟类流感H5N1爆发的动力学：鸭式耕作，顺序模型拟合和控制的作用。
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014
复制
发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Tildesley MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Retkute R;Jewell CP;Van Boeckel TP;Zhang G;Xiao X;Thanapongtharm W;Keeling M;Gilbert M;Tildesley MJ
高致病性禽流感(HPAI)亚型H5N1病毒在许多国家持续存在，并在家禽和野生鸟类中传播。此外，该病毒已在其他物种中出现，频繁的人畜共患病溢出事件表明，仍对人类健康构成重大风险。关键是要了解家禽业疾病的动态，对传播风险有更全面的了解，并在实施控制时更好地分配资源。在这篇论文中，我们利用2004年疫情的数据，开发了一套数学模型来模拟HPAI H5N1在泰国家禽业的传播。在评估传播风险时结合养鸭强度的模型最符合观察到的疫情的时空特征，这意味着集约化养鸭推动了泰国高致病性禽流感的传播。我们还使用序贯模型拟合方法扩展了我们的模型，以探索模型在新疾病爆发期间“实时”使用的能力。我们的结论是，虽然在疾病暴发的早期阶段对流行病规模的预测估计得很差，但该模型可以推断出应该部署的首选控制政策，以将疾病的影响降至最低。
The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in “real time” during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease outbreaks, the model can infer the preferred control policy that should be deployed to minimise the impact of the disease.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Probert WJ;Shea K;Fonnesbeck CJ;Runge MC;Carpenter TE;Dürr S;Garner MG;Harvey N;Stevenson MA;Webb CT;Werkman M;Tildesley MJ;Ferrari MJ
通讯作者：
Ferrari MJ
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Paul M;Tavornpanich S;Abrial D;Gasqui P;Charras-Garrido M;Thanapongtharm W;Xiao X;Gilbert M;Roger F;Ducrot C
通讯作者：
Ducrot C
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Gilbert, Marius;Newman, Scott H.;Takekawa, John Y.;Loth, Leo;Biradar, Chandrashekhar;Prosser, Diann J.;Balachandran, Sivananinthaperumal;Rao, Mandava Venkata Subba;Mundkur, Taej;Yan, Baoping;Xing, Zhi;Hou, Yuansheng;Batbayar, Nyambayar;Natsagdorj, Tseveenmayadag;Hogerwerf, Lenny;Slingenbergh, Jan;Xiao, Xiangming
通讯作者：
Xiao, Xiangming
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Jewell, Chris P.;Kypraios, Theodore;Roberts, Gareth O.
通讯作者：
Roberts, Gareth O.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Jewell, C. P.;Keeling, M. J.;Roberts, G. O.
通讯作者：
Roberts, G. O.