Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model.
Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model.
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DOI：
10.1051/vetres/2009076
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发表时间：
2010-05
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Ducrot C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paul M;Tavornpanich S;Abrial D;Gasqui P;Charras-Garrido M;Thanapongtharm W;Xiao X;Gilbert M;Roger F;Ducrot C
从2003年开始，高致病性禽流感(HPAI)H5N1病毒在东南亚蔓延，造成前所未有的流行病。泰国在2004年和2005年受到大规模感染，今天仍在经历零星暴发。虽然研究结果表明，HPAI H5N1的传播主要受贸易模式的影响，但确定所涉及的人为风险因素仍然是一个挑战。在这项研究中，我们利用泰国“第二波”疫情(2004年7月3日至2005年5月5日)的暴发数据，调查了哪些人为因素在泰国HPAI的风险中发挥了作用。我们首先基于分层贝叶斯模型对HPAI H5N1在分区层面的相对风险进行了空间分析。我们观察到相对风险具有很强的空间异质性。然后，我们在多变量线性模型中测试了一组潜在的风险因素。结果证实了自由放牧鸭和水稻种植强度的作用，但与斗鸡密度的相关性较弱。研究结果还揭示了一组与HPAI风险显著相关的人为因素。高风险与人口稠密地区、距离高速公路交叉口较近以及距离大城市较近密切相关。这些发现突出了对HPAI风险的一种新的解释模式，并表明，除了农业环境因素外，人为因素在H5N1的传播中发挥着重要作用。为了限制未来暴发的蔓延，必须持续努力控制家禽产品的流动。
Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Abrial, D;Calavas, D;Ducrot, C
通讯作者：
Ducrot, C
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Tiensin, T;Chaitaweesub, P;Stegeman, A
通讯作者：
Stegeman, A
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Webster, RG
通讯作者：
Webster, RG
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Wang M;Di B;Zhou DH;Zheng BJ;Jing H;Lin YP;Liu YF;Wu XW;Qin PZ;Wang YL;Jian LY;Li XZ;Xu JX;Lu EJ;Li TG;Xu J
通讯作者：
Xu J
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Amonsin, Alongkorn;Choatralkol, Chuensakon;Poovorawan, Yong
通讯作者：
Poovorawan, Yong