Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century
Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century
复制标题
21世纪西非水文循环预计将加强
作者：
Stella Todzo;A. Bichet;A. Diedhiou
抽象。这项研究使用了最近的高分辨率输出
CORDEX-非洲气候预测，以调查未来的变化，
西非水文循环的不同方面。来
世纪，西非的气温预计将上升
以比全球平均水平更快的速度（每十年+0.5摄氏度）
（每十年+0.3 ° C），平均降水量预计将
在几内亚海岸增加（每十年+0.03 mm d−1），但减少
在萨赫勒地区（每十年-0.005 mm d-1）。此外，降水是
预计将变得更强烈（每十年+0.2毫米d−1）和更小
在整个西非地区，这种现象非常频繁（每十年-1.5天），
区域温度升高（降水强度增加
平均值为+0.35 mm d−1 C−1和降水频率
平均减少-2.2 d C−1）。在萨赫勒上空，
干旱期的平均长度也将随着温度的升高而增加
（+4% d C−1），这增加了
干旱与该次区域的变暖。因此，水文循环是
预计在整个世纪，
西非，萨赫勒地区平均增加11%，
由于降水强度增加和干旱期延长，
在几内亚海岸，平均上升了+3% C−1，
只是降水强度增加的结果。
Abstract. This study uses the high-resolution outputs of the recent
CORDEX-Africa climate projections to investigate the future changes in
different aspects of the hydrological cycle over West Africa. Over the
twenty-first century, temperatures in West Africa are expected to increase
at a faster rate (+0.5 ∘C per decade) than the global average
(+0.3 ∘C per decade), and mean precipitation is expected to
increase over the Guinea Coast (+0.03 mm d−1 per decade) but decrease
over the Sahel (−0.005 mm d−1 per decade). In addition, precipitation is
expected to become more intense (+0.2 mm d−1 per decade) and less
frequent (−1.5 d per decade) over all of West Africa as a result of
increasing regional temperature (precipitation intensity increases on
average by +0.35 mm d−1 ∘C−1 and precipitation frequency
decreases on average by −2.2 d ∘C−1). Over the Sahel, the
average length of dry spells is also expected to increase with temperature
(+4 % d ∘C−1), which increases the likelihood for
droughts with warming in this subregion. Hence, the hydrological cycle is
expected to increase throughout the twenty-first century over all of
West Africa, on average by +11 % ∘C−1 over the Sahel as a
result of increasing precipitation intensity and lengthening of dry spells,
and on average by +3 % ∘C−1 over the Guinea Coast as a
result of increasing precipitation intensity only.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Kim, J.;Waliser, Duane E.;Favre, Alice
通讯作者：
Favre, Alice
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Bichet, Adeline;Hingray, Benoit;Anquetin, Sandrine
通讯作者：
Anquetin, Sandrine