A Warmer, Wetter and Less Windy China in the Twenty-First Century as Projected by a Nested High-Resolution Simulation Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
A Warmer, Wetter and Less Windy China in the Twenty-First Century as Projected by a Nested High-Resolution Simulation Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
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使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型进行嵌套高分辨率模拟，预测 21 世纪中国将更加温暖、湿润和少风
DOI：
10.1007/s13143-018-0072-5
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发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Yu Entao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Entao
对于人口最多、生态环境脆弱的中国来说，识别全球变暖背景下未来可能发生的气候变化至关重要。因此，高分辨率气候模拟对于了解气候变化和极端高温和干旱等变化的区域规模影响非常重要。在之前的一篇论文中（Yu et al. in Climate Dynamics 45: 2013–2031, 2015），使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型（由气候跨学科研究模型 (MIROC5) 在耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP5) 第 5 阶段的背景下的 6 小时输出强制执行）的高分辨率模拟通过观测进行了验证。在本研究中，重点关注温度、降水和地面风速，探讨了近期（2016-2035）、中期（2046-2065）和长期（2080-2099）未来气候预测。在代表性浓度路径6.0（RCP6.0）情景下，MIROC5（WRF）模拟预计21世纪初、中、后期全国年平均气温将分别上升0.9（0.93）、1.71（1.78）和3.3（3.29）℃，WRF模拟具有不同的空间和季节特征。具体而言，预计冬季气温上升较慢，但夏季气温上升较快，这可能导致 WRF 结果中夏季极端炎热事件更加频繁。预计未来降水量将普遍增加，全国平均降水量比二十一世纪三个时期分别增加4.13%（6.54%）、5.65%（6.99%）和13%（12.85%）。二十一世纪末的降水变化幅度是前两个时期的两倍，这表明本世纪末极端降水事件更加频繁，特别是在夏季。在年平均情况下，MIROC5 和 WRF 模拟中，未来中国地面风速预计将下降，但在夏季，中国东部地区的这些值预计将增加。结果与之前对中国的高分辨率投影模拟基本一致，但提供了早期研究中很少研究的表面风速预测。
The identification of possible future climate change under global warming is essential for China, which has the largest population and a vulnerable ecological environment. As such, high-resolution climate simulations are important for understanding the regional-scale impact of climate change and variation such as heat extremes and drought. In a previous paper (Yu et al. in Climate Dynamics 45: 2013–2031, 2015), a high-resolution simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (forced by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC5) 6-h outputs in the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)) was validated with observation. In this study, the near-term (2016–2035), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) future climate projections are explored by focusing on temperature, precipitation and surface wind speed. Under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 (RCP6.0) scenario, the national mean annual temperatures are expected to increase by 0.9 (0.93), 1.71 (1.78), and 3.3 (3.29) °C in the early, middle and late twenty-first century in the MIROC5 (WRF) simulation, respectively, with different spatial and seasonal features in the WRF simulation. Specifically, temperature is projected to increase more slowly in winter but faster in summer, which might lead to more frequent summer extreme hot events in the WRF results. Precipitation is expected to generally increase in the future, with the national averaged precipitation increasing by 4.13 (6.54), 5.65 (6.99) and 13 (12.85)% in the three periods in the twenty-first century. The amplitudes of precipitation change in the late twenty-first century are twice those of the previous two periods, thus indicating more extreme rainfall events at the end of this century, especially in summer time. The surface wind speed in the future is projected to decrease over China in both the MIROC5 and WRF simulations for the annual mean case, but in summer, these values are expected to increase in the eastern region of China. The results are generally consistent with the previous high-resolution projection simulations over China but offer projections of surface wind speed that were rarely investigated in earlier studies.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Entao Yu;Jianqi Sun;Huopo Chen;W. Xiang
通讯作者：
Entao Yu;Jianqi Sun;Huopo Chen;W. Xiang
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4400
发表时间：
2016-03
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Botao Zhou;Ying Xu;Jia Wu;Siyan Dong;Ying Shi
通讯作者：
Botao Zhou;Ying Xu;Jia Wu;Siyan Dong;Ying Shi
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Yu En-Tao;Wang Huijun;Sun Jian-qi
通讯作者：
Yu En-Tao;Wang Huijun;Sun Jian-qi
DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000678
发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
Earth's Future
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jinxin Zhu;Gordon H. Huang;Xiuquan Wang;G. Cheng
通讯作者：
Jinxin Zhu;Gordon H. Huang;Xiuquan Wang;G. Cheng
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Jingwei Xu;Nikolay Koldunov;A. Remedio;D. Sein;Xiefei Zhi;Xi Jiang;Min Xu;Xiuhua Zhu;K. Fraedrich;D. Jacob
通讯作者：
Jingwei Xu;Nikolay Koldunov;A. Remedio;D. Sein;Xiefei Zhi;Xi Jiang;Min Xu;Xiuhua Zhu;K. Fraedrich;D. Jacob