The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India.

The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jce.2009.11.002
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发表时间:
2010-03-01
影响因子:
2.7
通讯作者:
Yip W
Yip W
中科院分区:
经济学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bloom DE;Canning D;Hu L;Liu Y;Mahal A;Yip W

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我们发现,跨国经济增长模型成功地追踪了中国和印度的增长起飞。预测起飞的主要驱动因素是健康状况的改善、贸易开放程度的提高以及生育率下降导致的劳动力与人口比率的上升。我们还探讨了劳动力从生产率低的农业重新分配到生产率更高的工业和服务业的影响。由于中国自 1980 年以来预期寿命相对停滞,因此将寿命延长的货币价值纳入全部收入的衡量标准中,可以缩小中国相对于印度的起飞幅度之间的差距。
We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.
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