Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China
Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China
复制标题
梯级坝系统洪水风险分析：以中国大渡河流域为例
作者：
蔡文君;祝雪萍;彭安帮
为了量化梯级坝系的洪水风险，关键是分析风险因素和潜在的破坏路径。本研究应用贝氏网路建立一梯级坝系洪水风险分析模式。采用专家实验、历史数据和计算公式，估计BN模型中的先验概率和原始条件概率表（CPT），通过灵敏度分析确定系统中的原始连续断裂失效路径。为了避免对某一事件发生概率的误解，采用溃坝分析模型（DB-IWHR）2014软件和洪水调度方法对溃坝过程进行了模拟。得到了后验连续断裂失效路径，并基于新证据对原CPT进行了修正。将该方法应用于中国大渡河流域上游的巴拉-布斯沟-双江口（BL-BSG-SJK）。结果表明，研究的梯级坝系统可识别出三条连续破断的破坏路径。建立了一个新的BN模型，用于确定梯级坝系统在三条连续破裂失效路径下的失效概率。该分析方法对其它类似情况也有一定的参考价值。
To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases.
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