Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.
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DOI:
10.1007/s11166-008-9053-x
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发表时间:
2008-12-01
影响因子:
4.7
通讯作者:
Taubinsky, Dmitry
Taubinsky, Dmitry
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Chabris, Christopher F.;Laibson, David;Morris, Carrie L.;Schuldt, Jonathon P.;Taubinsky, Dmitry

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我们使用实验室任务估计了555名受试者的贴现率,并发现这些个体贴现率预测了领域行为(例如,运动,BMI,吸烟)的个体间差异。贴现率和每个字段行为之间的相关性很小:没有一个超过0.28,许多接近0。然而,贴现率至少与我们数据集中的任何变量(例如,性别、年龄、教育程度)具有同样多的预测能力。当对油田行为进行汇总时,贴现率和油田行为之间的相关性会上升:这些相关性的范围为0.09-0.38。我们提出了一个模型,解释了为什么特定的跨期选择行为与折现率只有微弱的相关性,尽管折现率有力地预测了跨期决策的总量。
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.
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