Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model.
Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.210530
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Thompson RN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gog JR;Hill EM;Danon L;Thompson RN
作为对SARS-CoV-2大流行的对策，候选疫苗得到了迅速的开发和临床试验评估，随后作为大规模疫苗接种运动的一部分进行了部署。然而，SARS-CoV-2病毒已经证明了变异和发展变体的能力，这可以改变流行病学特性，并可能改变疫苗的有效性。高效疫苗的广泛使用可能会迅速对SARS-CoV-2病毒施加选择压力，使其发生突变，从而逃避疫苗诱导的免疫反应。当感染广泛时，这一点尤其令人担忧。通过开发和分析具有不同脆弱性和接触率的两个人口群体的数学模型，我们探讨了在人口中部署疫苗对繁殖率、病例、疾病丰度和疫苗逃逸压力的影响。这一模型的结果说明了两点：（i）旨在降低流行率的疫苗接种可能比直接为弱势群体接种疫苗更有效地减少疾病;（ii）疫苗逃逸的风险最高可能发生在中等水平的疫苗接种。这项工作证明了一个关键原则：谨慎地将疫苗针对特定人群，可以尽可能减少疾病，同时限制疫苗逃逸的风险。
As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially also the effectiveness of vaccines. The widespread deployment of highly effective vaccines may rapidly exert selection pressure on the SARS-CoV-2 virus directed towards mutations that escape the vaccine-induced immune response. This is particularly concerning while infection is widespread. By developing and analysing a mathematical model of two population groupings with differing vulnerability and contact rates, we explore the impact of the deployment of vaccines among the population on the reproduction ratio, cases, disease abundance and vaccine escape pressure. The results from this model illustrate two insights: (i) vaccination aimed at reducing prevalence could be more effective at reducing disease than directly vaccinating the vulnerable; (ii) the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination. This work demonstrates a key principle: the careful targeting of vaccines towards particular population groups could reduce disease as much as possible while limiting the risk of vaccine escape.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Moore S;Hill EM;Dyson L;Tildesley MJ;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Chabas H;Lion S;Nicot A;Meaden S;van Houte S;Moineau S;Wahl LM;Westra ER;Gandon S
通讯作者：
Gandon S
SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1038/s41577-021-00544-9
发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
Nature reviews. Immunology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cobey S;Larremore DB;Grad YH;Lipsitch M
通讯作者：
Lipsitch M
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Kissler, Stephen M.;Tedijanto, Christine;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc