Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0267
复制
发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
House T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fyles M;Fearon E;Overton C;University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group;Wingfield T;Medley GF;Hall I;Pellis L;House T
本文利用具有家庭结构的分枝过程模型，探讨了通过接触者追踪、病例隔离和暴露接触者隔离等策略来控制SARS冠状病毒2型疫情。这一结构反映出家庭成员之间的传播风险高于非家庭成员。我们探讨了利用家庭结构的战略实施选择，并调查了包括两步追踪，向后追踪，智能手机追踪和症状报告而不是测试结果的追踪策略。主要模型结果是接触者追踪结合不同程度的物理距离对流行病增长率的影响。此外，我们调查流行灭绝时间，以表明干预措施必须持续的时间段。我们考虑了不接受隔离/检疫、不遵守隔离/检疫以及随着时间的推移接触者回忆减少的影响。我们的研究结果发现，相比自我隔离的情况下，没有接触者追踪，接触者追踪策略，旨在利用家庭结构允许一些放宽物理距离的措施，但不能完全控制疫情没有其他措施。即使假设没有输入性病例，并维持适度的实际距离、检测和追踪努力，使这一流行病消失的时间也可能是几个月到几年。本文是主题问题“塑造英国早期COVID-19大流行应对的模型”的一部分。
We explore strategies of contact tracing, case isolation and quarantine of exposed contacts to control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using a branching process model with household structure. This structure reflects higher transmission risks among household members than among non-household members. We explore strategic implementation choices that make use of household structure, and investigate strategies including two-step tracing, backwards tracing, smartphone tracing and tracing upon symptom report rather than test results. The primary model outcome is the effect of contact tracing, in combination with different levels of physical distancing, on the growth rate of the epidemic. Furthermore, we investigate epidemic extinction times to indicate the time period over which interventions must be sustained. We consider effects of non-uptake of isolation/quarantine, non-adherence, and declining recall of contacts over time. Our results find that, compared to self-isolation of cases without contact tracing, a contact tracing strategy designed to take advantage of household structure allows for some relaxation of physical distancing measures but cannot completely control the epidemic absent of other measures. Even assuming no imported cases and sustainment of moderate physical distancing, testing and tracing efforts, the time to bring the epidemic to extinction could be in the order of months to years. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
19
作者：
Ganyani, Tapiwa;Kremer, Cecile;Hens, Niel
通讯作者：
Hens, Niel
在Covid-19爆发中存在过度传播的情况下，向后接触的含义。
影响因子：
--
作者：
Endo A;Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group;Leclerc QJ;Knight GM;Medley GF;Atkins KE;Funk S;Kucharski AJ
通讯作者：
Kucharski AJ
影响因子：
19.6
作者：
Kojaku S;Hébert-Dufresne L;Mones E;Lehmann S;Ahn YY
通讯作者：
Ahn YY
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Jarvis, Christopher I.;Van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1
发表时间：
2003-05-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Donnelly CA;Ghani AC;Leung GM;Hedley AJ;Fraser C;Riley S;Abu-Raddad LJ;Ho LM;Thach TQ;Chau P;Chan KP;Lam TH;Tse LY;Tsang T;Liu SH;Kong JH;Lau EM;Ferguson NM;Anderson RM
通讯作者：
Anderson RM