The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0273
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发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Danon L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Read JM;House T;Medley GF;Keeling MJ;Danon L
许多国家已经禁止团体和集会，作为应对冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2引起的大流行的一部分。虽然有涉及大规模集会的疫情报告，但对总体传播的贡献尚不清楚。我们使用了一项社会接触行为调查的数据，该调查专门询问了与群体的接触情况，以估计群体归因分数（PAF），作为群体被阻止时基本生殖数量的相对变化。50人以上人群占报告的接触事件的0.5%，我们估计50人以上人群的PAF为5.4%（95%置信区间为1.4%，11.5%）。20人以上群体的PAF为18.9%（12.7%，25.7%），10人以上群体的PAF为25.2%（19.4%，31.4%）。在COVID-19前接触模式的正常情况下，大群体的个人对流行病学的影响相对较小; 10至50人的中小型群体对流行病的影响较大。本文是主题问题“塑造英国早期COVID-19大流行应对的模型”的一部分。
Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
Proceedings. Biological sciences
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
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