Tree‐Ring Perspectives on the Colorado River: Looking Back and Moving Forward

Tree‐Ring Perspectives on the Colorado River: Looking Back and Moving Forward
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科罗拉多河树环视角:回顾与展望

DOI:
10.1111/1752-1688.12989
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Winitsky, Anabel G.
Winitsky, Anabel G.
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Meko, David M.;Woodhouse, Connie A.;Winitsky, Anabel G.

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树木年轮一直是理解科罗拉多河流量变异性的核心。在20世纪20年代后流量稳步下降的刺激下,早期的树木年轮研究通过识别过去更干燥的时段,提请人们注意气候变化对供水的重要性。后来,应用现代统计方法对树木年轮数据进行了重建,将Lees Ferry的年流量恢复到16世纪初,突出了1922年科罗拉多河契约基期前所未有的潮湿。这一重建作为1995年《水资源公报》关于应对科罗拉多河严重持续干旱的特刊的论文集的框架。这篇回顾论文回顾了科罗拉多河树状水文学的历史方面,以及自1995年以来的最新进展。一个不断扩大的树轮网络受到了一系列新的重建统计方法的影响。与此同时,气候变化和对水日益增长的需求促使人们对水资源规划和管理中最佳利用重建的处理和提交产生了更大的兴趣。在强调早期研究主要结果的稳健性的同时,最近的研究改进了对流量异常程度的估计,将年流量延长到1200 年以上,并强调了中世纪时期无与伦比的干旱持续时间。
Tree rings have been central to the understanding of variability of flow of the Colorado River. Spurred by steadily declining flows after the 1920s, early tree‐ring research drew attention to the importance of climate variability to water supply by identifying episodes in the past that were even drier. Application of modern statistical methods to tree‐ring data later yielded a reconstruction of annual flows at Lees Ferry back to the early 1500s that highlighted the unprecedented wetness of the base period for the 1922 Colorado River Compact. That reconstruction served as the framework for a collection of papers in a 1995 special issue ofWater Resources Bulletinon coping with severe sustained drought on the Colorado River. This retrospective paper reviews historical aspects of the dendrohydrology of the Colorado River, and the updates since 1995. A constantly expanding tree‐ring network has been subjected to an array of new statistical approaches to reconstruction. Climate change and increasing demand for water have meanwhile driven increased interest in the processing and presentation of reconstructions for optimal use in water resources planning and management. While highlighting the robustness of main findings of earlier studies, recent research yields improved estimates of magnitudes of flow anomalies, extends annual flows to more than 1200 years, and underscores unmatched drought duration in the medieval period.
应对科罗拉多州 RWER 的严重持续干旱:简介和概述1
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