Bayes and blickets: effects of knowledge on causal induction in children and adults.
Bayes and blickets: effects of knowledge on causal induction in children and adults.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01203.x
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发表时间：
2011-11
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Gopnik A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Griffiths TL;Sobel DM;Tenenbaum JB;Gopnik A
人们善于推断新奇的因果关系，即使只从几个观察。关于遇到各种类型的因果关系的概率以及与原因和结果相关的机制的性质的先验知识在这些推断中起着至关重要的作用。我们测试如何使用和获取这些知识的正式帐户，基于分析因果归纳贝叶斯推理。五项研究探讨了这个帐户的预测与成人和4岁的孩子，使用的任务中，参与者了解一组对象的因果属性。这些研究改变了我们的贝叶斯方法预测应该与因果归纳相关的两个因素：因果关系存在的先验概率，以及因果关系之间的确定性或概率关系的假设。成人的判断（实验1，2和4）是在密切对应的定量预测模型，和儿童的判断（实验3和5）同意定性与此帐户。
People are adept at inferring novel causal relations, even from only a few observations. Prior knowledge about the probability of encountering causal relations of various types and the nature of the mechanisms relating causes and effects plays a crucial role in these inferences. We test a formal account of how this knowledge can be used and acquired, based on analyzing causal induction as Bayesian inference. Five studies explored the predictions of this account with adults and 4-year-olds, using tasks in which participants learned about the causal properties of a set of objects. The studies varied the two factors that our Bayesian approach predicted should be relevant to causal induction: the prior probability with which causal relations exist, and the assumption of a deterministic or a probabilistic relation between cause and effect. Adults’ judgments (Experiments 1, 2, and 4) were in close correspondence with the quantitative predictions of the model, and children’s judgments (Experiments 3 and 5) agreed qualitatively with this account.
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影响因子：
4
作者：
Gopnik, A;Sobel, DM;Glymour, C
通讯作者：
Glymour, C
影响因子：
7.5
作者：
Friedman, N;Koller, D
通讯作者：
Koller, D
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Cheng, PW
通讯作者：
Cheng, PW
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Goldvarg, E;Johnson-Laird, PN
通讯作者：
Johnson-Laird, PN
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Glymour, C
通讯作者：
Glymour, C