Different spreading dynamics throughout Germany during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a time series study based on national surveillance data.
Different spreading dynamics throughout Germany during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a time series study based on national surveillance data.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100151
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Karagiannidis C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schuppert A;Polotzek K;Schmitt J;Busse R;Karschau J;Karagiannidis C
COVID-19大流行的第二波导致德国各地的发病率出现重大差异。无假设k-最近邻聚类法对德国各县每周发病率进行主成分分析，发现各组的传播行为相似。不同的传播动力学进行了分析的时间演变的元组[x（t），x '（t）]的周发病率及其衍生物的导数图。通过相应时间段前后每周发生率的差异，评估德国在第二波期间不同停堆措施的有效性。德国第二波COVID-19大流行期间，不同程度的非药物干预措施的实施导致了四个不同时间段的复杂、空间多样性和年龄相关的传播模式。聚类给出了三个区域的重合传播特性。2020年10月，全国范围内周发病率呈指数级增长，倍增时间为10天。2020年11月的部分关闭使总体感染率下降了20-40%，北方和德国西南部出现了类似高原的行为。东部地区呈现出进一步接近线性增长的30- 80%。总体而言，在部分关闭措施期间，60岁以上人群的发病率仍增加了15-35%。只有延长停机时间才能大幅降低事故发生率。这些措施使所有年龄组和所有地区的人数减少了15- 45%。截至2021年1月，这一下降约为2020年10月增长率的-1统计数据25倍，相关性为-0统计数据96。确定了三个区域集团，它们的动态不同，所采取措施的有效性程度也不同。部分关闭是适度有效的，最多停止指数增长，但蔓延仍然部分高原状和区域继续以接近线性的方式增长。只有延长停工才扭转了线性增长。机构支持和物质资源由大学维滕/埃尔德克和Kliniken der施塔特Stadt科隆，教育和研究'Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin'（NUM），egePan Unimed（01 KX 2021）德国部提供。
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial differences in incidence rates across Germany. Assumption-free k-nearest neighbour clustering from the principal component analysis of weekly incidence rates of German counties groups similar spreading behaviour. Different spreading dynamics was analysed by the derivative plots of the temporal evolution of tuples [x(t),x’(t)] of weekly incidence rates and their derivatives. The effectiveness of the different shutdown measures in Germany during the second wave is assessed by the difference of weekly incidences before and after the respective time periods. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions of different extents resulted in four distinct time periods of complex, spatially diverse, and age-related spreading patterns during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Clustering gave three regions of coincident spreading characteristics. October 2020 showed a nationwide exponential growth of weekly incidence rates with a doubling time of 10 days. A partial shutdown during November 2020 decreased the overall infection rates by 20–40% with a plateau-like behaviour in northern and southwestern Germany. The eastern parts exhibited a further near-linear growth by 30–80%. Allover the incidence rates among people above 60 years still increased by 15–35% during partial shutdown measures. Only an extended shutdown led to a substantial decrease in incidence rates. These measures decreased the numbers among all age groups and in all regions by 15–45%. This decline until January 2021 was about -1•25 times the October 2020 growth rates with a strong correlation of -0•96. Three regional groups with different dynamics and different degrees of effectiveness of the applied measures were identified. The partial shutdown was moderately effective and at most stopped the exponential growth, but the spread remained partly plateau-like and regionally continued to grow in a nearly linear fashion. Only the extended shutdown reversed the linear growth. Institutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/ Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Köln, German ministry of education and research ‘Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin’ (NUM), egePan Unimed (01KX2021).
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/s2213-2600(21)00013-8
发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
The Lancet. Respiratory medicine
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