Future projections of the prevalence of dementia in Japan: results from the Toyama Dementia Survey.
Future projections of the prevalence of dementia in Japan: results from the Toyama Dementia Survey.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12877-021-02540-z
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发表时间：
2021-10-26
期刊：
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Suzuki M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nakahori N;Sekine M;Yamada M;Tatsuse T;Kido H;Suzuki M
本研究旨在利用富山痴呆症调查的痴呆症患病率和人口预测，对日本全国痴呆症患病率进行未来预测。我们使用富山痴呆症调查中1985年、1990年、1996年、2001年和2014年按性别和年龄划分的痴呆症患病率进行线性回归分析，以计算按性别和年龄划分的未来患病率。然后将估计患病率乘以2020年至2045年47个都道府县中按性别和年龄划分的65岁及以上人口的估计未来人口，并加在一起计算痴呆症患者的总人数。痴呆症的未来患病率的估计值是通过将47个都道府县中计算出的痴呆症患者人数除以65岁及以上人口的估计未来人口来计算的。此外，从2020年到2045年，47个都道府县中每个县的痴呆症未来患病率的估计值都显示在日本地图上，并按四个级别进行灰度编码。2020年，痴呆症的预计未来患病率在所有都道府县都不超过20%，但到2025年，有5个都道府县（主要是农村都道府县）的预计患病率超过20%。预计到2030年，全国的患病率将超过20%，到2035年，42个都道府县的患病率将超过25%。预计到2045年，除东京都外，所有都道府县的痴呆症患病率都将超过25%，47个都道府县中有12个将超过30%。在接下来的25年里，预计全国65岁以上人群中痴呆症的患病率将超过25%，包括大都市地区。
This study aimed to make future projections of the nationwide prevalence of dementia in Japan using the prevalence of dementia from the Toyama Dementia Survey and population projections. We performed linear regression analysis using the prevalence of dementia by sex and age in 1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2014 from the Toyama Dementia Survey to calculate the estimated future prevalence by sex and age. The estimated prevalence was then multiplied by the estimated future population of people aged 65 years and older by sex and age in each of the 47 prefectures from 2020 to 2045 and added together to calculate the total number of people with dementia. The estimated future prevalence of dementia was calculated by dividing the calculated number of people with dementia by the estimated future population of people aged 65 years and older in each of the 47 prefectures. In addition, the estimated future prevalence of dementia in each of the 47 prefectures from 2020 to 2045 was presented on a map of Japan and grayscale-coded in four levels. In 2020, the estimated future prevalence of dementia did not exceed 20% in any prefecture, but in 2025, five prefectures, mainly rural prefectures, had projected rates exceeding 20%. In 2030, the prevalence rate is projected to exceed 20% nationwide, and by 2035, the rate will exceed 25% in 42 prefectures. In 2045, all prefectures excluding Tokyo are projected to have a dementia prevalence rate exceeding 25%, and the rate will exceed 30% in 12 of 47 prefectures. Over the next 25 years, the prevalence of dementia in people older than 65 years is projected to exceed 25% nationwide, including metropolitan areas.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Matthews, Fiona E.;Arthur, Antony;Barnes, Linda E.;Bond, John;Jagger, Carol;Robinson, Louise;Brayne, Carol
通讯作者：
Brayne, Carol
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Nakahori, Nobue;Sekine, Michikazu;Suzuki, Michio
通讯作者：
Suzuki, Michio
DOI：
10.1186/s13195-016-0188-8
发表时间：
2016-07-30
期刊：
Alzheimer's research & therapy
影响因子：
--
作者：
Prince M;Ali GC;Guerchet M;Prina AM;Albanese E;Wu YT
通讯作者：
Wu YT
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
FOLSTEIN, MF;FOLSTEIN, SE;MCHUGH, PR
通讯作者：
MCHUGH, PR
影响因子：
39
作者：
Langa, Kenneth M.;Larson, Eric B.;Crimmins, Eileen M.;Faul, Jessica D.;Levine, Deborah A.;Kabeto, Mohammed U.;Weir, David R.
通讯作者：
Weir, David R.