Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects
Using the basic reproduction number to assess the risk of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects
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利用基本繁殖数评估块状皮肤病病毒通过昆虫叮咬传播的风险
DOI：
10.1101/602292
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gubbins S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gubbins S
近年来，狼疮性皮肤病病毒（LSDV）已成为非洲以外牛的主要威胁，在那里它是地方性的。虽然有证据表明LSDV是通过吸血节肢动物的叮咬传播的，但很少有研究评估特定病媒物种造成的传播风险。在这里，通过计算五种叮咬昆虫传播LSDV的基本繁殖数（R0）来评估这种风险：稳定的苍蝇，Stomoxys calcitrans，叮咬蠓，Culicoides nubeculosus和三种蚊子，埃及伊蚊，斯氏按蚊和致倦库蚊。与LSDV的机械传输的参数估计使用新的分析以前发表的数据传输实验，而矢量生活史参数来自已发表的文献。不确定性和敏感性分析被用来计算R0为每个物种，并确定这些参数影响其大小。结果表明，S. calcitransis可能是最有效的传播LSDV，与埃及伊蚊也是一个有效的载体。相比之下，C.nubeculosus、An.stephensi和Cx. quinquefasciatus可能是LSDV的无效载体。然而，有相当大的不确定性与估计ofR0，反映在大多数的组成参数的不确定性。敏感性分析表明，未来的实验工作应侧重于估计从昆虫到牛的传播概率和昆虫中的病毒灭活率。
In recent years, lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has emerged as a major threat to cattle outside Africa, where it is endemic. Although evidence suggests that LSDV is transmitted by the bites of blood sucking arthropods, few studies have assessed the risk of transmission posed by particular vector species. Here this risk is assessed by calculating the basic reproduction number (R0) for transmission of LSDV by five species of biting insect: the stable fly,Stomoxys calcitrans, the biting midge,Culicoides nubeculosus, and three mosquito species,Aedes aegypti,Anopheles stephensi,andCulex quinquefasciatus. Parameters relating to mechanical transmission of LSDV were estimated using new analyses of previously published data from transmission experiments, while vector life history parameters were derived from the published literature. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were used to computeR0for each species and to identify those parameters which influence its magnitude. Results suggest thatS. calcitransis likely to be the most efficient at transmitting LSDV, withAe. aegyptialso an efficient vector. By contrast,C. nubeculosus,An. stephensi, andCx. quinquefasciatusare likely to be inefficient vectors of LSDV. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the estimates ofR0, reflecting uncertainty in most of the constituent parameters. Sensitivity analysis suggests that future experimental work should focus on estimating the probability of transmission from insect to bovine and on the virus inactivation rate in insects.
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影响因子：
2.6
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
2.4
作者：
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作者：
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什么是死亡率？
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1950
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
H. M. Luykx
通讯作者：
H. M. Luykx