Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.
Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/s12917-017-1247-5
复制
发表时间：
2017-11-06
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Frankena K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Molla W;de Jong MCM;Frankena K
结节性皮肤病（LSD）是由羊痘病毒属病毒引起的牛的传染性病毒性疾病。1981年，埃塞俄比亚首次报告了麦角酰二乙胺，随后成为地方病。这项时间序列研究的目的是确定LSD爆发的空间和时间分布，并预测埃塞俄比亚LSD爆发的未来模式。2000年至2015年期间，埃塞俄比亚共报告了3811起LSD疫情。在此期间，全国82%的地区（n = 683）、88%的行政区（n = 77）和所有州或市政府（n = 9和n = 2）至少报告过一次迷幻剂。在地区一级，LSD的平均发病率为每16年5.58次（0.35年-1）。不同地区的发病率不同，炎热干燥的低地最低，温暖潮湿的高地最高。LSD的爆发被认为是季节性的。LSD的爆发通常在10月达到高峰，在5月达到低谷。迷幻剂爆发的趋势表明，在研究所涉期间，迷幻剂的爆发略有增加，但在统计上有显著意义。月降水量与LSD爆发模式相反，在滞后0时两者呈负相关但不显著（r =-0.05，p = 0.49，斯皮尔曼等级相关），但在滞后1 ~ 6个月时两者的相关性变为正相关且显著，在滞后3时相关性最高（r = 0.55，p < 0.001）。2016-2018年期间的预测显示，三年来最高的LSD爆发次数将发生在10月，2016年4月最低，2017年和2018年5月最低。LSD发生在该国所有主要地区。在漫长的雨季结束时，疫情高发。了解LSD的时间和空间模式并预测未来的发生情况，有助于指示应特别注意预防和控制该疾病的时期。本文的在线版本（10.1186/s12917-017-1247-5）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious viral disease of cattle caused by a virus of the genus Capripoxvirus. LSD was reported for the first time in Ethiopia in 1981 and subsequently became endemic. This time series study was undertaken with the aims of identifying the spatial and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks and to forecast the future pattern of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia. A total of 3811 LSD outbreaks were reported in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2015. In this period, LSD was reported at least once in 82% of the districts (n = 683), 88% of the administrative zones (n = 77), and all of the regional states or city administrations (n = 9 and n = 2) in the country. The average incidence of LSD outbreaks at district level was 5.58 per 16 years (0.35 year−1). The incidence differed between areas, being the lowest in hot dry lowlands and highest in warm moist highland. The occurrence of LSD outbreaks was found to be seasonal. LSD outbreaks generally have a peak in October and a low in May. The trend of LSD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant increase over the study period. The monthly precipitation pattern is the reverse of LSD outbreak pattern and they are negatively but non-significantly correlated at lag 0 (r = −0.05, p = 0.49, Spearman rank correlation) but the correlation becomes positive and significant when the series are lagged by 1 to 6 months, being the highest at lag 3 (r = 0.55, p < 0.001). The forecast for the period 2016–2018 revealed that the highest number of LSD outbreaks will occur in October for all the 3 years and the lowest in April for the year 2016 and in May for 2017 and 2018. LSD occurred in all major parts of the country. Outbreaks were high at the end of the long rainy season. Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of LSD and forecasting future occurrences are useful for indicating periods when particular attention should be paid to prevent and control the disease. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-017-1247-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Ayelet, Gelagay;Abate, Yebeyen;Asmare, Kassahun
通讯作者：
Asmare, Kassahun
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Gari, G.;Waret-Szkuta, A.;Roger, F.
通讯作者：
Roger, F.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Tasioudi, K. E.;Antoniou, S. E.;Dile, C.
通讯作者：
Dile, C.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Courtin, F;Carpenter, TE;Chomel, BB
通讯作者：
Chomel, BB
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2016.0540
发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dibble CJ;O'Dea EB;Park AW;Drake JM
通讯作者：
Drake JM