A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
复制
发表时间：
2021-08-27
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
List of Contributors by Team
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bracher J;Wolffram D;Deuschel J;Görgen K;Ketterer JL;Ullrich A;Abbott S;Barbarossa MV;Bertsimas D;Bhatia S;Bodych M;Bosse NI;Burgard JP;Castro L;Fairchild G;Fuhrmann J;Funk S;Gogolewski K;Gu Q;Heyder S;Hotz T;Kheifetz Y;Kirsten H;Krueger T;Krymova E;Li ML;Meinke JH;Michaud IJ;Niedzielewski K;Ożański T;Rakowski F;Scholz M;Soni S;Srivastava A;Zieliński J;Zou D;Gneiting T;Schienle M;List of Contributors by Team
疾病建模在持续的COVID-19大流行期间产生了相当大的政策影响，人们越来越认识到，结合多个模型可以提高输出的可靠性。在此，我们报告了在德国和波兰进行的为期十周的COVID-19短期预测合作（2020年10月12日至12月19日）的见解。研究期间涵盖了这两个国家第二波疫情的开始，即非药物干预措施（NPI）收紧，随后报告病例出现下降（波兰）或平稳期和重新增加（德国）。十三个独立团队提供了COVID-19病例和死亡的概率实时预测。据报告，这些项目的筹备时间为一至四周，评价侧重于一周和两周的时间范围，这两个时间范围受国家业绩指标变化的影响较小。预测之间的差异在点预测和预测范围方面都是相当大的。集群预报表现出良好的相对性能，特别是在覆盖范围方面，但并没有明显主导单一模式的预测。这项研究已预先登记，并将在今后的大流行阶段进行跟踪。在COVID-19大流行期间，预测模型已被广泛用于为决策提供信息。在这项预先注册的前瞻性研究中，作者评估了德国和波兰的14个短期模型，发现预测存在相当大的异质性，并强调了组合预测的好处。
Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic. Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of combined forecasts.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2
作者：
Held, Leonhard;Meyer, Sebastian;Bracher, Johannes
通讯作者：
Bracher, Johannes
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0810762106
发表时间：
2009-04-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Funk, Sebastian;Gilad, Erez;Jansen, Vincent A. A.
通讯作者：
Jansen, Vincent A. A.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Funk, Sebastian;Camacho, Anton;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Dean, Natalie E.;Piontti, Ana Pastore Y.;Longini, Ira M., Jr.
通讯作者：
Longini, Ira M., Jr.
DOI：
10.1002/bimj.202000112
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
影响因子：
--
作者：
Günther F;Bender A;Katz K;Küchenhoff H;Höhle M
通讯作者：
Höhle M