The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).
The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0166247
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Sharkey KJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jonkers AR;Sharkey KJ
河流水温是主要受地形、气象、气候和人为因素控制的水文特征。对于英国来说，淡水温度的研究主要集中在英格兰和威尔士的观测上;苏格兰目前还没有类似的综合数据集。在这里，我们提出了一个模型，整个大陆英国在最近三十年（1982-2011），包括地理外推到苏格兰。该模型根据物理地理特征、日平均气温和海水温度以及可用的淡水温度测量值，估计了研究期间每个河段和任何一天的日平均淡水温度。我们还推断模型的时间，以预测未来变暖的英国的河流目前观察到的趋势。我们的研究结果突出了英国淡水温度和变暖率的时空多样性。在研究期间，英国河流的平均温度为9.84°C，每十年平均变暖0.22 ° C，湖泊附近和沿海地区的河流温度较低。模型结果显示，4月是变暖最快的月份（平均每十年+0.63 ° C），并显示大多数河流平均每年有更多的日子温度超过10°C，这是几种鱼类病原体的关键阈值。我们的研究结果还确定了苏格兰高地部分地区（4月和9月）的异常变暖和普遍的降温事件，12月在整个英国和7月在英格兰西南部（威尔士，康沃尔郡，德文郡和多塞特郡）。这种变化率的区域异质性对当前和未来的水质、水生生态系统以及水传播疾病的传播都有影响。
River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982–2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain’s rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain’s rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases.
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影响因子：
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