Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.
Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.
复制标题
在普遍的艾滋病毒流行环境中推断结核病发病率、流行率和死亡率的传播模型。
DOI:
10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1
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发表时间:
2023-03-24
影响因子:
16.6
通讯作者:
Ayles, Helen
中科院分区:
文献类型:
--
作者:
Dodd, Peter J.;Shaweno, Debebe;Ku, Chu-Chang;Glaziou, Philippe;Pretorius, Carel;Hayes, Richard J.;MacPherson, Peter;Cohen, Ted;Ayles, Helen
Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission. Accurately estimating the burden of tuberculosis is challenging due to incomplete registration systems and the relationship with HIV. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian modelling strategy accounting for these factors that estimates age- and country-specific annual risks of infection and the proportion resulting from recent infection.
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影响因子:
168.9
作者:
Naghavi, Mohsen;Wang, Haidong;Lozano, Rafael;Davis, Adrian;Liang, Xiaofeng;Zhou, Maigeng;Vollset, Stein Emil;Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu;Abdalla, Safa;Abd-Allah, Foad;Aziz, Muna I. Abdel;Abera, Semaw Ferede;Aboyans, Victor;Abraham, Biju;Abraham, Jerry P.;Abuabara, Katrina E.;Abubakar, Ibrahim;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.;Achoki, Tom;Adelekan, Ademola;Ademi, Zanfi Na;Adofo, Koranteng;Adou, Arsene Kouablan;Adsuar, Jose C.;Arnlov, Johan;Agardh, Emilie Elisabet;Akena, Dickens;Al Khabouri, Mazin J.;Alasfoor, Deena;Albittar, Mohammed;Alegretti, Miguel Angel;Aleman, Alicia V.;Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw;Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael;Alhabib, Samia;Ali, Mohammed K.;Ali, Raghib;Alla, Francois;Al Lami, Faris;Allebeck, Peter;AlMazroa, Mohammad A.;Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi;Alsharif, Ubai;Alvarez, Elena;Alviz-Guzman, Nelson;Amankwaa, Adansi A.;Amare, Azmeraw T.;Ameli, Omid;Amini, Hassan;Ammar, Walid;Anderson, H. Ross;Anderson, Benjamin O.;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.;Anwari, Palwasha;Apfel, Henry;Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu;Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic;Al Artaman;Asad, Majed Masoud;Asghar, Rana J.;Assadi, Reza;Atkins, Lydia S.;Atkinson, Charles;Badawi, Alaa;Bahit, Maria C.;Bakfalouni, Talal;Balakrishnan, Kalpana;Balalla, Shivanthi;Banerjee, Amitava;Barber, Ryan M.;Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.;Barquera, Simon;Barregard, Lars;Barrero, Lope H.;Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh;Basu, Arindam;Basu, Sanjay;Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar;Beardsley, Justin;Bedi, Neeraj;Beghi, Ettore;Bekele, Tolesa;Bell, Michelle L.;Benjet, Corina;Bennett, Derrick A.;Bensenor, Isabela M.;Benzian, Habib;Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia;Beyene, Tariku Jibat;Bhala, Neeraj;Bhalla, Ashish;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.;Bikbov, Boris;Bin Abdulhak, Aref;Biryukov, Stan;Blore, Jed D.;Blyth, Fiona M.;Bohensky, Megan A.;Borges, Guilherme;Bose, Dipan;Boufous, Soufiane;Bourne, Rupert R.;Boyers, Lindsay N.;Brainin, Michael;Brauer, Michael;Brayne, Carol E. G.;Brazinova, Alexandra;Breitborde, Nicholas;Brenner, Hermann;Briggs, Adam D. M.;Brown, Jonathan C.;Brugha, Traolach S.;Buckle, Geoffrey C.;Bui, Linh Ngoc;Bukhman, Gene;Burch, Michael;Nonato, Ismael Ricardo Campos;Carabin, Helesne;Cardenas, Rosario;Carapetis, Jonathan;Carpenter, David O.;Caso, Valeria;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.;Castro, Ruben Estanislao;Catala-Lopez, Ferrn;Cavalleri, Fiorella;Chang, Jung-Chen;Charlson, Fiona C.;Che, Xuan;Chen, Honglei;Chen, Yingyao;Chen, Jian Sheng;Chen, Zhengming;Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia;Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel;Chowdhury, Rajiv;Christensen, Hanne;Christophi, Costas A.;Chuang, Ting-Wu;Chugh, Sumeet S.;Cirillo, Massimo;Coates, Matthew M.;Coffeng, Luc Edgar;Coggeshall, Megan S.;Cohen, Aaron;Colistro, Valentina;Colquhoun, Samantha M.;Colomar, Mercedes;Cooper, Leslie Trumbull;Cooper, Cyrus;Coppola, Luis M.;Cortinovis, Monica;Courville, Karen;Cowie, Benjamin C.;Criqui, Michael H.;Crump, John A.;Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia;Leite, Iuri da Costa;Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C.;Dandona, Lalit;Dandona, Rakhi;Dansereau, Emily;Dargan, Paul I.;Dayama, Anand;De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa;de la Vega, Shelley F.;De Leo, Diego;Degenhardt, Louisa;del Pozo-Cruz, Borja;Dellavalle, Robert P.;Deribe, Kebede;Jarlais, Don C. Des;Dessalegn, Muluken;deVeber, Gabrielle A.;Dharmaratne, Samath D.;Dherani, Mukesh;Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis;Diaz-Torne, Cesar;Dicker, Daniel;Ding, Eric L.;Dokova, Klara;Dorsey, E. Ray;Driscoll, Tim R.;Duan, Leilei;Duber, Herbert C.;Durrani, Adnan M.;Ebel, Beth E.;Edmond, Karen M.;Ellenbogen, Richard G.;Elshrek, Yousef;Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich;Erskine, Holly E.;Eshrati, Babak;Esteghamati, Alireza;Estep, Kara;Fuerst, Thomas;Fahimi, Saman;Fahrion, Anna S.;Faraon, Emerito Jose A.;Farzadfar, Farshad;Fay, Derek F. J.;Feigl, Andrea B.;Feigin, Valery L.;Felicio, Manuela Mendonca;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad;Fernandes, Jefferson G.;Ferrari, Alize J.;Fleming, Thomas D.;Foigt, Nataliya;Foreman, Kyle;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.;Fowkes, F. Gerry R.;Fra Paleo, Urbano;Franklin, Richard C.;Futran, Neal D.;Gaffikin, Lynne;Gambashidze, Ketevan;Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho;Garcia-Guerra, Francisco Armando;Garcia, Ana Cristina;Geleijnse, Johanna M.;Gessner, Bradford D.;Gibney, Katherine B.;Gillum, Richard F.;Gilmour, Stuart;Abdelmageem, Ibrahim;Ginawi, Mohamed;Giroud, Maurice;Glaser, Elizabeth L.;Goenka, Shifalika;Dantes, Hector Gomez;Gona, Philimon;Gonzalez-Medina, Diego;Guinovart, Caterina;Gupta, Rahul;Gupta, Rajeev;Gosselin, Richard A.;Gotay, Carolyn C.;Goto, Atsushi;Gowda, Hube N.;Graetz, Nicholas;Greenwell, K. Fern;Gugnani, Harish Chander;Gunnell, David;Gutierrez, Reyna A.;Haagsma, Juanita;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima;Hagan, Holly;Hagstromer, Maria;Halasa, Yara A.;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi;Hamavid, Hannah;Hammami, Mouhanad;Hancock, Jamie;Hankey, Graeme J.;Hansen, Gillian M.;Harb, Hilda L.;Harewood, Heather;Haro, Josep Maria;Havmoeller, Rasmus;Hay, Roderick J.;Hay, Simon I.;Hedayati, Mohammad T.;Pi, Ileana B. Heredia;Heuton, Kyle R.;Heydarpour, Pouria;Higashi, Hideki;Hijar, Martha;Hoek, Hans W.;Hoffman, Howard J.;Hornberger, John C.;Hosgood, H. Dean;Hossain, Mazeda;Hotez, Peter J.;Hoy, Damian G.;Hsairi, Mohamed;Hu, Guoqing;Huang, John J.;Huffman, Mark D.;Hughes, Andrew J.;Husseini, Abdullatif;Huynh, Chantal;Iannarone, Marissa;Iburg, Kim M.;Idrisov, Bulat T.;Ikeda, Nayu;Innos, Kaire;Inoue, Manami;Islami, Farhad;Ismayilova, Samaya;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.;Jassal, Simerjot;Jayaraman, Sudha P.;Jensen, Paul N.;Jha, Vivekanand;Jiang, Guohong;Jiang, Ying;Jonas, Jost B.;Joseph, Jonathan;Juel, Knud;Kabagambe, Edmond Kato;Kan, Haidong;Karch, Andre;Karimkhani, Chante;Karthikeyan, Ganesan;Kassebaum, Nicholas;Kaul, Anil;Kawakami, Norito;Kazanjan, Konstantin;Kazi, Dhruv S.;Kemp, Andrew H.;Kengne, Andre Pascal;Keren, Andre;Kereselidze, Maia;Khader, Yousef Saleh;Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan;Khan, Ejaz Ahmed;Khan, Gulfaraz;Khang, Young-Ho;Kieling, Christian;Kinfu, Yohannes;Kinge, Jonas M.;Kim, Daniel;Kim, Sungroul;Kivipelto, Miia;Knibbs, Luke;Knudsen, Ann Kristin;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Kosen, Sowarta;Kotagal, Meera;Kravchenko, Michael A.;Krishnaswami, Sanjay;Krueger, Hans;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate;Kuipers, Ernst J.;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk;Kulkarni, Chanda;Kulkarni, Veena S.;Kumar, Kaushalendra;Kumar, Ravi B.;Kwan, Gene F.;Kyu, Hmwe;Lai, Taavi;Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana;Lalloo, Ratilal;Lallukka, Tea;Lam, Hilton;Lan, Qing;Lansingh, Van C.;Larson, Heidi J.;Larsson, Anders;Lavados, Pablo M.;Lawrynowicz, Alicia E. B.;Leasher, Janet L.;Lee, Jong-Tae;Leigh, James;Leinsalu, Mall;Leung, Ricky;Levitz, Carly;Li, Bin;Li, Yichong;Li, Yongmei;Liddell, Chelsea;Lim, Stephen S.;de Lima, Graca Maria Ferreira;Lind, Maggie L.;Lipshultz, Steven E.;Liu, Shiwei;Liu, Yang;Lloyd, Belinda K.;Lofgren, Katherine T.;Logroscino, Giancarlo;London, Stephanie J.;Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie;Lotufo, Paulo A.;Lucas, Robyn M.;Lunevicius, Raimundas;Lyons, Ronan Anthony;Ma, Stefan;Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro;MacIntyre, Michael F.;Mackay, Mark T.;MacLachlan, Jennifer H.;Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos;Mahdi, Abbas A.;Majdan, Marek;Malekzadeh, Reza;Mangalam, Srikanth;Mapoma, Christopher Chabila;Marape, Marape;Marcenes, Wagner;Margono, Christopher;Marks, Guy B.;Marzan, Melvin Barrientos;Masci, Joseph R.;Mashal, Mohammad Taufi Q.;Masiye, Felix;Mason-Jones, Amanda J.;Matzopolous, Richard;Mayosi, Bongani M.;Mazorodze, Tasara T.;McGrath, John J.;Mckay, Abigail C.;Mckee, Martin;McLain, Abigail;Meaney, Peter A.;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan;Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola;Melaku, Yohannes Adama;Meltzer, Michele;Memish, Ziad A.;Mendoza, Walter;Mensah, George A.;Meretoja, Atte;Mhimbira, Francis A.;Miller, Ted R.;Mills, Edward J.;Misganaw, Awoke;Mishra, Santosh K.;Mock, Charles N.;Moffitt, Terrie E.;Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin;Mokdad, Ali H.;Mola, Glen Liddell;Monasta, Lorenzo;Monis, Jonathan de la Cruz;Hernandez, Julio C. Montaez;Montico, Marcella;Montine, Thomas J.;Mooney, Meghan D.;Moore, Ami R.;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar;Moran, Andrew E.;Mori, Rintaro;Moschandreas, Joanna;Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora;Moyer, Madeline L.;Mozaffarian, Dariush;Mueller, Ulrich O.;Mukaigawara, Mitsuru;Mullany, Erin C.;Murray, Joseph;Mustapha, Adetoun;Naghavi, Paria;Naheed, Aliya;Naidoo, Kovin S.;Naldi, Luigi;Nand, Devina;Nangia, Vinay;Narayan, K. M. Venkat;Nash, Denis;Nasher, Jamal;Nejjari, Chakib;Nelson, Robert G.;Neuhouser, Marian;Neupane, Sudan Prasad;Newcomb, Polly A.;Newman, Lori;Newton, Charles R.;Ng, Marie;Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak;Nguyen, Grant;Nhung Thi Trang Nguyen;Nisar, Muhammad Imran;Nolte, Sandra;Norheim, Ole F.;Norman, Rosana E.;Norrving, Bo;Nyakarahuka, Luke;Odell, Shaun;O'Donnell, Martin;Ohkubo, Takayoshi;Ohno, Summer Lockett;Olusanya, Bolajoko O.;Omer, Saad B.;Opio, John Nelson;Orisakwe, Orish Ebere;Ortblad, Katrina F.;Ortiz, Alberto;Otayza, Maria Lourdes K.;Pain, Amanda W.;Pandian, Jeyaraj D.;Panelo, Carlo Irwin;Panniyammakal, Jeemon;Papachristou, Christina;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.;Patten, Scott B.;Patton, George C.;Paul, Vinod K.;Pavlin, Boris;Pearce, Neil;Pellegrini, Carlos A.;Pereira, David M.;Peresson, Sophie C.;Perez-Padilla, Rogelio;Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P.;Perico, Norberto;Pervaiz, Aslam;Pesudovs, Konrad;Peterson, Carrie B.;Petzold, Max;Phillips, Bryan K.;Phillips, David E.;Phillips, Michael R.;Plass, Dietrich;Piel, Frederic Bernard;Poenaru, Dan;Polinder, Suzanne;Popova, Svetlana;Poulton, Richie G.;Pourmalek, Farshad;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj;Qato, Dima;Quezada, Amado D.;Quistberg, D. Alex;Rabito, Felicia;Rafay, Anwar;Rahimi, Kazem;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa;Rahman, Sajjad U. R.;Raju, Murugesan;Rakovac, Ivo;Rana, Saleem M.;Refaat, Amany;Remuzzi, Giuseppe;Ribeiro, Antonio L.;Ricci, Stefano;Riccio, Patricia M.;Richardson, Lee;Richardus, Jan Hendrik;Roberts, Bayard;Roberts, D. Allen;Robinson, Margaret;Roca, Anna;Rodriguez, Alina;Rojas-Rueda, David;Ronfani, Luca;Room, Robin;Roth, Gregory A.;Rothenbacher, Dietrich;Rothstein, David H.;Rowley, Jane Tf;Roy, Nobhojit;Ruhago, George M.;Rushton, Lesley;Sambandam, Sankar;Soreide, Kjetil;Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya;Saha, Sukanta;Sahathevan, Ramesh;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali;Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi;Salomon, Joshua A.;Salvo, Deborah;Samonte, Genesis May J.;Sampson, Uchechukwu;Sanabria, Juan Ramon;Sandar, Logan;Santos, Itamar S.;Satpathy, Maheswar;Sawhney, Monika;Saylan, Mete;Scarborough, Peter;Schoettker, Ben;Schmidt, Juergen C.;Schneider, Ione J. C.;Schumacher, Austin E.;Schwebel, David C.;Scott, James G.;Sepanlou, Sadaf G.;Servan-Mori, Edson E.;Shackelford, Katya;Shaheen, Amira;Shahraz, Saeid;Shakh-Nazarova, Marina;Shangguan, Siyi;She, Jun;Sheikhbahaei, Sara;Shepard, Donald S.;Shibuya, Kenji;Shinohara, Yukito;Shishani, Kawkab;Shiue, Ivy;Shivakoti, Rupak;Shrime, Mark G.;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora;Silberberg, Donald H.;Silva, Andrea P.;Simard, Edgar P.;Sindi, Shireen;Singh, Jasvinder A.;Singh, Lavanya;Sioson, Edgar;Skirbekk, Vegard;Sliwa, Karen;So, Samuel;Soljak, Michael;Soneji, Samir;Soshnikov, Sergey S.;Sposato, Luciano A.;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.;Stanaway, Jeff Rey D.;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi;Steenland, Kyle;Stein, Claudia;Steiner, Caitlyn;Stevens, Antony;Stoeckl, Heidi;Straif, Kurt;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos;Sturua, Lela;Sunguya, Bruno F.;Swaminathan, Soumya;Swaroop, Mamta;Sykes, Bryan L.;Tabb, Karen M.;Takahashi, Ken;Talongwa, Roberto Tchio;Tan, Feng;Tanne, David;Tanner, Marcel;Tavakkoli, Mohammad;Ao, Braden Te;Teixeira, Carolina Maria;Templin, Tara;Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman;Thomas, Bernadette A.;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.;Thrift, Amanda G.;Thurston, George D.;Tillmann, Taavi;Tirschwell, David L.;Tleyjeh, Imad M.;Tonelli, Marcello;Topouzis, Fotis;Towbin, Jeffrey A.;Toyoshima, Hideaki;Traebert, Jefferson;Tran, Bach X.;Truelsen, Thomas;Trujillo, Ulises;Trillini, Matias;Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis;Tuzcu, E. Murat;Ubeda, Clotilde;Uchendu, Uche S.;Ukwaja, Kingsley N.;Undurraga, Eduardo A.;Vallely, Andrew J.;van de Vijver, Steven;van Gool, Coen H.;Varakin, Yuri Y.;Vasankari, Tommi J.;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales;Vavilala, Monica S.;Venketasubramanian, N.;Vijayakumar, Lakshmi;Villalpando, Salvador;Violante, Francesco S.;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich;Wagner, Gregory R.;Waller, Stephen G.;Wang, JianLi;Wang, Linhong;Wang, XiaoRong;Wang, Yanping;Warouw, Tati Suryati;Weichenthal, Scott;Weiderpass, Elisabete;Weintraub, Robert G.;Wenzhi, Wang;Werdecker, Andrea;Wessells, K. Ryan R.;Westerman, Ronny;Whiteford, Harvey A.;Wilkinson, James D.;Williams, Thomas Neil;Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret;Wolfe, Charles D. A.;Wolock, Timothy M.;Woolf, Anthony D.;Wong, John Q.;Wright, Jonathan L.;Wulf, Sarah;Wurtz, Brittany;Xu, Gelin;Yang, Yang C.;Yano, Yuichiro;Yatsuya, Hiroshi;Yip, Paul;Yonemoto, Naohiro;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Younis, Mustafa;Yu, Chuanhua;Jin, Kim Yun;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed;Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad;Zeeb, Hajo;Zhang, Yong;Zhao, Yong;Zheng, Yingfeng;Zhu, Jun;Zhu, Shankuan;Zonies, David;Zou, Xiao Nong;Zunt, Joseph R.;Vos, Theo;Lopez, Alan D.;Murray, Christopher J. L.
通讯作者:
Murray, Christopher J. L.
影响因子:
15.8
作者:
Stevens GA;Alkema L;Black RE;Boerma JT;Collins GS;Ezzati M;Grove JT;Hogan DR;Hogan MC;Horton R;Lawn JE;Marušić A;Mathers CD;Murray CJ;Rudan I;Salomon JA;Simpson PJ;Vos T;Welch V;GATHER Working Group
通讯作者:
GATHER Working Group
影响因子:
3.7
作者:
Middelkoop, Keren;Bekker, Linda-Gail;Wood, Robin
通讯作者:
Wood, Robin
影响因子:
5
作者:
Dodd PJ;Looker C;Plumb ID;Bond V;Schaap A;Shanaube K;Muyoyeta M;Vynnycky E;Godfrey-Faussett P;Corbett EL;Beyers N;Ayles H;White RG
通讯作者:
White RG
影响因子:
15.1
作者:
Cilloni L;Fu H;Vesga JF;Dowdy D;Pretorius C;Ahmedov S;Nair SA;Mosneaga A;Masini E;Sahu S;Arinaminpathy N
通讯作者:
Arinaminpathy N