Coping with Urban & Agriculture Water Demand Uncertainty in Water Management Plan Design: the Interest of Participatory Scenario Analysis
Coping with Urban & Agriculture Water Demand Uncertainty in Water Management Plan Design: the Interest of Participatory Scenario Analysis
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
J. Rinaudo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Graveline;Bertrand Aunay;J. Fusillier;J. Rinaudo
管理水资源短缺是世界各地面临的一项重大挑战。在欧洲联盟，需要强有力的方法来建立有效的措施方案，以便根据《水框架指令》实现水体的“良好状态”。这些方案往往着眼于目前水体实际状况与“良好”状况之间的差距，而不考虑水需求的不确定性。我们开发了一种新的方法框架，能够考虑到未来水需求的不确定性，并设计方案，以增加它们达到良好数量状态的可能性。前瞻性办法使人们能够在研讨会期间与利益攸关方携手构建和量化未来的水需求情景。它们包括确定驱动因素、辩论预先构建的情景、重建情景和估计水需求。利用所有水资源的资源-需求平衡模型模拟了共同构建的情景的影响，成本效益分析使得能够制定以估计的未来缺水至少是成本为目标的方案。以留尼汪岛(印度洋，法国)为例，说明了该方法在农业(Ag)和城市用水(UW)需求方面的应用。产生了三种部门情景组合(UW和Ag)，并最终通过匹配土地利用参数确保了一致性。这一解决方案可以适用于住房和农业用地受限的案例研究。由于每一种情景意味着在强度和空间分布方面有很大不同的计量方案，结果表明，考虑到水需求的不确定性很重要。
Managing water scarcity is a major challenge for regions all over the world. In the European Union, robust methodologies are needed to establish effective programmes of measures aimed at achieving the “good status” of water bodies according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). These programmes often target the current gap between the actual status of water bodies and the “good” status without accounting for uncertainty in water demand. We develop a new methodological framework that enable to account for uncertainty in future water demand and design programmes in order to increase their likelihood of attaining the good quantitative status. The foresight approach enables to construct and quantify future water demand scenarios hand-in-hand with stakeholders during workshops. They consist in identifying drivers, debating pre-constructed scenarios, reconstructing scenarios and estimating water demand. The impact of the co-constructed scenarios is simulated with a resource-demand balance model for all water resources and a cost-effectiveness analysis makes it possible to construct programmes that target the estimated future water deficits at least cost. The methodology is illustrated with an application to Reunion Island (Indian Ocean, France) considering agriculture (Ag) and urban water (Uw) demand. Three combinations of sector scenarios (Uw, Ag) were produced and coherence was eventually ensured by fitting the land use parameter. This solution can accommodate case studies faced with a binding land constraint for housing and agriculture. As each scenario implies significantly different programmes of measure in terms of intensity and spatial distribution, results demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainty on water demand into account.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
通讯作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan