Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections.
Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections.
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DOI：
10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00299-3
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Porfiri M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Lellis P;Ruiz Marín M;Porfiri M
媒体上普遍流传的说法是，现任美国总统唐纳德·J·特朗普因处理 COVID-19 大流行的方式而输掉了 2020 年大选。然而，支持这种说法的定量证据是有限的。我们提出了一种空间信息论方法来批判性地研究 2020 年总统选举中投票行为与 COVID-19 发病率之间的联系。该方法克服了传统回归分析的经典局限性，它不需要基础数学模型，并且可以捕获非线性相互作用。通过对县级数据的分析，我们发现投票行为与 COVID-19 病例流行率之间存在密切关联。令人惊讶的是，这样的关联与公认的叙述相反：在经历较少 COVID-19 病例的县中，现任总统输给了他的对手、现任总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登。对这一观察结果的一个合理解释是，自由派和保守派选民对这一流行病的不同态度，导致更多的 COVID-19 在共和党选民比例较大的县中传播。
In the media, a prevalent narrative is that the incumbent United States President Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 elections because of the way he handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative evidence to support this narrative is, however, limited. We put forward a spatial, information-theoretic approach to critically examine the link between voting behavior and COVID-19 incidence in the 2020 presidential elections. The approach overcomes classical limitations of traditional regression analysis, where it does not require an underlying mathematical model and it can capture nonlinear interactions. From the analysis of county-level data, we uncovered a robust association between voting behavior and prevalence of COVID-19 cases. Surprisingly, such an association points in the opposite direction from the accepted narrative: in counties that experienced less COVID-19 cases, the incumbent President lost more ground to his opponent, now President Joseph R. Biden Jr. A tenable explanation of this observation is the different attitude of liberal and conservative voters toward the pandemic, which led to more COVID-19 spreading in counties with a larger share of republican voters.
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影响因子：
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