Reconciling complexity and deep uncertainty in infrastructure design for climate adaptation
Reconciling complexity and deep uncertainty in infrastructure design for climate adaptation
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协调气候适应基础设施设计的复杂性和深度不确定性
DOI：
10.1080/23789689.2019.1708179
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Chester, Mikhail V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Helmrich, Alysha M.;Chester, Mikhail V.
随着气候变化成为下个世纪人工系统面临的主要挑战，人们做出了重大努力，以了解如何定位基础设施，以适应和可靠地提供服务。特别是，气候变化的速度快于关键基础设施的预期寿命，导致情况远远超出固定气候的预期设计条件。这项研究通过Cynefin和深度不确定性框架的应用，评估了现有基础设施设计方法--传统的故障安全、装甲、低遗憾、故障安全和适应性管理--在多大程度上解决了与气候相关的复杂性和不确定性。结果表明，现有的基础设施设计方法在应对气候变化的空间和时间尺度上具有不同程度的有效性。最常见的基础设施设计方法的复杂性和不确定性水平低于气候变化要求，这表明解决复杂性和深度不确定性的方法的潜力尚未充分实现。
As climate change is emerging as a major challenge for man-made systems in the coming century, there has been significant effort to understand how to position infrastructure to adapt and deliver services reliably. Particularly, the climate is changing faster than the expected lifetime of critical infrastructure, resulting in situations well beyond the intended design conditions of a stationary climate. This study assesses how well existing infrastructure design approaches – traditional fail-safe, armoring, low regret, safe-to-fail, and adaptive management – account for climate-related complexity and uncertainty through an application of the Cynefin and Deep Uncertainty Frameworks. The results indicate that existing infrastructure design approaches have varying levels of validity for addressing climate change across spatial and temporal scales. The most common infrastructure design approaches undertake lower levels of complexity and uncertainty than climate change demands, indicating the potential of approaches that address complexity and deep uncertainty have not been fully realized.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40852-017-0063-2
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
--
作者：
Evelin Priscila Trindade;Marcus Phoebe Farias Hinnig;Eduardo Moreira da Costa;Jamile Sabatini Marques;R. Bastos;Tan Yigitcanlar
通讯作者：
Tan Yigitcanlar
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Hansen;Makiko Sato;P. Hearty;R. Ruedy;M. Kelley;V. Masson‐Delmotte;G. Russell;G. Tselioudis;Junji Cao;E. Rignot;I. Velicogna;Blair R. Tormey;Bailey G. Donovan;E. Kandiano;K. Schuckmann;P. Kharecha;A. Legrande;M. Bauer;Kwok-Wai Lo
通讯作者：
J. Hansen;Makiko Sato;P. Hearty;R. Ruedy;M. Kelley;V. Masson‐Delmotte;G. Russell;G. Tselioudis;Junji Cao;E. Rignot;I. Velicogna;Blair R. Tormey;Bailey G. Donovan;E. Kandiano;K. Schuckmann;P. Kharecha;A. Legrande;M. Bauer;Kwok-Wai Lo
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Park, J.;Seager, T. P.;Linkov, I.
通讯作者：
Linkov, I.
影响因子：
11.2
作者：
Daniel Burillo;M. Chester;B. Ruddell;N. Johnson
通讯作者：
Daniel Burillo;M. Chester;B. Ruddell;N. Johnson
设计风暴概念的逻辑方法
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
J. Packman;C. Kidd
通讯作者：
C. Kidd