Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions.
Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z
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发表时间：
2023-09-13
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Pye, Steve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Achakulwisut, Ploy;Erickson, Peter;Guivarch, Celine;Schaeffer, Roberto;Brutschin, Elina;Pye, Steve
政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告的减缓设想方案数据库是为能源转型决策提供信息的重要资源。然而，有各种各样的模型、设想方案设计和由此产生的产出。在这里，我们分析了与将变暖限制在2 °C或以下的速度，轨迹和不同化石燃料减少途径的可行性相一致的情景。在没有或有限超调的情况下，全球煤炭，石油和天然气供应（用于所有用途）从2020年到2050年平均分别下降95%，62%和42%，但天然气的长期作用是高度可变的。更高的气体路径是由更高的碳捕获和储存（CCS）和二氧化碳去除（CDR），但可能与区域CO2储存能力和技术采用，扩散和路径依赖性的模型表示不足。如果CDR受到专家共识的限制，则相应的模拟煤，石油和天然气减少量分别为99%，70%和84%。我们的研究结果表明，有必要在煤炭、石油和天然气的生产和使用方面采取明确的近期和长期减排基准，同时制定其他气候减缓目标。对IPCC AR6情景数据库的分析探讨了根据净零目标减少煤炭、石油和天然气生产和使用的速度，并指出需要在其他气候减缓目标的同时采用逐步淘汰基准。
The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion, and path-dependencies. If CDR is constrained by limits derived from expert consensus, the respective modelled coal, oil, and gas reductions become 99%, 70%, and 84%. Our findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets. An analysis of the IPCC AR6 scenarios database explores how quickly coal, oil, and gas production and use should be reduced in line with net-zero goals, and points to the need to adopt phase-out benchmarks alongside other climate mitigation targets.
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