An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives
An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives
复制标题
反映《巴黎协定》气候目标的排放路径分类
DOI：
10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
M. Gidden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Schleussner;Gaurav Ganti;J. Rogelj;M. Gidden
2015年《巴黎协定》设定了全球气候雄心的目标，体现在其长期温度目标和减缓目标中。科学界探讨了符合《巴黎协定》的温室气体减排路径的特点。然而，在对这些途径进行分类时，重点是温度结果，而不是减排目标。在此，我们提出了一个路径分类，旨在全面反映巴黎协定中规定的气候标准。我们展示了这种方法如何允许对《协定》作出完全一致的解释。对于符合《巴黎协定》的路径，我们报告的二氧化碳和温室气体净排放量分别为2050年和2065年左右。我们说明了如何路径设计标准，而不是植根于巴黎协定，如2100年的温度水平，导致情景的结果，其中约6 - 24%的部署（四分位数范围）的二氧化碳清除观察。符合《巴黎协定》的温室气体排放途径同时追求升温低于1.5 °C，很可能永远不会超过2 °C，并在世纪后半叶实现温室气体净零排放。它们可能需要更少量的二氧化碳去除。
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the objectives of global climate ambition as expressed in its long-term temperature goal and mitigation goal. The scientific community has explored the characteristics of greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways in line with the Paris Agreement. However, when categorizing such pathways, the focus has been put on the temperature outcome and not on emission reduction objectives. Here we propose a pathway classification that aims to comprehensively reflect the climate criteria set out in the Paris Agreement. We show how such an approach allows for a fully consistent interpretation of the Agreement. For Paris Agreement compatible pathways, we report net zero CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions around 2050 and 2065, respectively. We illustrate how pathway design criteria not rooted in the Paris Agreement, such as the 2100 temperature level, result in scenario outcomes wherein about 6 - 24% higher deployment (interquartile range) of carbon dioxide removal is observed. Greenhouse gas emissions pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement simultaneously pursue warming of less than 1.5 °C, very likely never exceed 2 °C and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the second half of the century. They can require smaller amounts of carbon dioxide removal.
将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 所需的所有选项（而非灵丹妙药）：情景评估
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Warszawski L
通讯作者：
Warszawski L