Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change
Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change
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气候变化导致热应激增加的概率预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
D. Battisti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. V. Vargas Zeppetello;A. Raftery;D. Battisti
热量指数是量化人类热暴露的指标。在这里，使用概率排放预测，我们表明，由人为CO2排放驱动的热量指数的变化将在未来几十年内增加全球对危险环境的暴露。即使巴黎协定将全球变暖限制在2 °C的目标得以实现，在大部分热带地区，危险的热量指数水平可能会增加50-100%，在整个中纬度地区的许多地区，危险的热量指数水平可能会增加3-10倍。如果我们不采取比我们的统计预测更积极的减排措施，很可能到2100年，生活在热带地区的许多人将在每个典型年份的大部分时间里暴露在危险的高热量指数值下，而在中纬度地区罕见的致命热浪将成为每年发生的事件。根据对全球变暖的概率预测，到2100年，即使巴黎协定将升温限制在2°C的目标得以实现，热带地区的危险热指数水平也可能增加50-100%，中纬度地区可能增加3-10倍。
The Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. Here, using probabilistic emission projections, we show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous environments in the coming decades. Even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C is met, the exposure to dangerous Heat Index levels will likely increase by 50–100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3–10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes. Without emissions reductions more aggressive than those considered possible by our statistical projection, it is likely that by 2100, many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high Heat Index values during most days of each typical year, and that the kinds of deadly heat waves that have been rarities in the midlatitudes will become annual occurrences. Exposure to dangerous heat index levels will likely increase by 50-100% in the tropics and by a factor of 3-10 in the mid-latitudes by 2100, even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 2°C is met, according to probabilistic projections of global warming.
植物生理学增加了 CMIP6 地球系统模型中对二氧化碳的瞬态气候响应的幅度和传播
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Zarakas, Claire M.;Swann, Abigail L.;Laguë, Marysa M.;Armour, Kyle C.;Randerson, James T.
通讯作者：
Randerson, James T.