Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain.
Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.201669
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发表时间：
2021-06-16
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Semenov MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Putelat T;Whitmore AP;Senapati N;Semenov MA
在未来的CMIP 5气候变化情景下，2050年，由于CO2施肥和物候变化的综合影响，预计英国（GB）小麦产量将增加约10%。与当今相比，农作物通过在干旱和高温胁迫发生之前进行发育，避免了干旱和高温胁迫对粮食产量的气候影响增加。在未来，在整个英国，生长季节水分胁迫造成的产量损失将保持不变，损失达到潜在产量的20%左右，而开花前后干旱造成的损失将减少，约占水分限制产量的9%。开花前后热胁迫造成的产量损失在未来仍然可以忽略不计。这些结论来自一项模拟研究，该研究基于Sirius小麦模拟模型对来自CMIP5集合的19个全球气候模型的2050年气候情景的响应，这些模型位于代表GB当前或潜在小麦种植区的25个地点。然而，根据对水分胁迫的敏感性，预测不同地点之间的产量年际变化很大，在某些情况下表明小麦产量稳定性低。为此，应进行局部规模的研究，以评估与未来天气模式有关的产量预测的不确定性。
Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.
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影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Semenov, Mikhail A.;Stratonovitch, Pierre
通讯作者：
Stratonovitch, Pierre
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Knapp S;van der Heijden MGA
通讯作者：
van der Heijden MGA
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Ewert, F;Rodriguez, D;Villalobos, F
通讯作者：
Villalobos, F
影响因子：
2
作者：
Foulkes, MJ;Scott, RK;Sylvester-Bradley, R
通讯作者：
Sylvester-Bradley, R
影响因子：
2
作者：
Foulkes, MJ;Scott, RK;Sylvester-Bradley, R
通讯作者：
Sylvester-Bradley, R