Quantifying Socioeconomic Impact of a Tornado by Estimating Population Outmigration as a Resilience Metric at the Community Level.
Quantifying Socioeconomic Impact of a Tornado by Estimating Population Outmigration as a Resilience Metric at the Community Level.
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)st.1943-541x.0002019
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发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Peek L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Masoomi H;van de Lindt JW;Peek L
政策制定者、社区领袖、工程师和研究人员对了解龙卷风建筑越来越感兴趣，部分原因是过去十年中致命和破坏性龙卷风的数量。除了直接损失，如死亡和破坏，龙卷风还可能由于社区内高度耦合的网络而造成许多间接损失。当网络中断时，这可能会导致人口外流，如果规模足够大、持续时间足够长，随着时间的推移，可能会加剧社区的间接社会经济损失。在这项研究中，一个社区被粗略地模拟为其物理-社会-经济属性，以研究人口外移作为社区复原力的衡量标准。在这方面，对龙卷风后受影响的物理网络(即电力网络、供水网络和建筑物)的恢复进行了调查，并将其与学生、家庭居民和作为社区内社会经济主体的雇员联系起来。根据从危险发生到社区完全恢复的规定时间内，家庭中的这三个因素受到影响的概率，评估了每个家庭的迁出概率。最后，通过聚合社区中的所有家庭来评估社区的潜在人口外流。这种分析的结果可以作为决策工具，优先加强社区中现有的基础设施或优化新社区的总体规划，并表明物理-社会-经济相互作用在复原力研究中的重要性。
Policymakers, community leaders, engineers, and researchers have gained interest in understanding tornado-resilient buildings, in part because of the number of deadly and destructive tornadoes over the last decade. In addition to direct losses, such as deaths and damages, tornadoes may also cause many indirect losses as a result of the highly coupled networks within communities. When networks are disrupted, this can cause population outmigration which, if significant and long-lasting enough, may exacerbate a community’s indirect socioeconomic losses over time. In this study, a community was coarsely modeled with its physical-socio-economic attributes to study population outmigration as a community resilience metric. In this regard, recovery of affected physical networks (i.e., electric power network, water network, and buildings) in the wake of a tornado was investigated and linked to students, household residents, and employees as socioeconomic agents within the community. The probability of outmigration for each household was assessed based on the probability that these three agents in the household are affected over a prescribed time period from the occurrence of the hazard to the full restoration of the community. Finally, the potential population outmigration for the community was assessed by aggregating all the households in the community. The results of such an analysis can be used as a decision-making tool to prioritize hardening of existing infrastructure in a community or optimize master planning of new communities and demonstrates the importance of physical-socio-economic interactions in resilience studies.
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