A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China
A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China
复制标题
我国季节气候预测研究综述
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-014-0016-7
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Zheng Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Fang;Zhu Yali;Chen Hong;Zheng Fei
气候研究的最终目标是产生不同时间尺度的气候预测。在中国，预测气候的努力始于20世纪30年代。自20世纪50年代末以来，根据历史模拟环流模式进行了实验性业务气候预报。然而，由于气候变化的内在复杂性，当时的预测相当不准确。直到20世纪80年代末，世界气候研究计划（WCRP）的热带海洋和全球大气项目启动后，季节气候预测才取得了实质性进展。本文在简要介绍季节气候预测研究历史的基础上，综述了我国季节气候预测研究的概况。根据中国科学家发表的文献，讨论了与气候变率和可预测性有关的过程和因子。中国的这些研究反映了过去几十年来世界其他地区所做的气候研究工作的各个方面，特别是与东亚的季风研究有关。随着气候变暖，极端气候现象及其频率和强度预计将发生变化，而且很有可能会增加。因此，季节性气候预测对于中国来说更加重要，以便有效地减轻气候极端事件所产生的灾害，如频繁的洪水，干旱和中国南方的大冻雨事件。
The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.
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DOI：
10.1007/978-3-642-59992-7_1
发表时间：
1999
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
H. Storch
通讯作者：
H. Storch
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
S. Nan;Jianping Li
通讯作者：
S. Nan;Jianping Li
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Yu En-Tao;Wang Huijun;Sun Jian-qi
通讯作者：
Yu En-Tao;Wang Huijun;Sun Jian-qi
DOI：
10.1016/j.jht.2012.07.017
发表时间：
2012-10
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Siaw Chui Chai;J. Bear‐Lehman;S. Weinberg;Marilyn Nonken
通讯作者：
Siaw Chui Chai;J. Bear‐Lehman;S. Weinberg;Marilyn Nonken
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Climatic and Environmental Research
影响因子：
--
作者：
W. Hui;L. Xian;Fan Ke;Sun Jian;Zhou Guang
通讯作者：
W. Hui;L. Xian;Fan Ke;Sun Jian;Zhou Guang